德銀：首次覆蓋正榮地產(6158.HK)給予買入評級，目標價5.5港元
德意志銀行發報吿首次覆蓋正榮地產(6158.HK)，主要內容如下：
首次覆蓋並給予公司“買入”的投資評級：關注高質量發展
首次覆蓋正榮地產並給予“買入”評級。鑑於公司強勁的增長前景，包括預期的收益和信用水平的優化，預測未來12個月的目標價格為港幣5.5元。正榮地產的快週轉策略及嚴格的財務自律使其在貸款環境偏緊的情況下依然保持良好健康的財務槓桿水平。管理層中期的目標是：1）通過降低成本提高利潤，特別是財務成本，其中大部分已經資本化；2）通過改善資產負債表和提高信用評級來降低融資成本；3）提高權益比。
快週轉策略
正榮地產傾向較短的開發週期和更快地確認利潤，因此較多通過公開市場收購土地。正榮地產的土地儲備一般不超過三年，並且更偏好開工時間更快的中小型規模土地。
估值
基於8.4倍市盈率設定目標價格，該價格是基於每股收益的3年複合增長率33.5％和0.25x倍PEG，對應20％/29％的FY20 / 21E的資產淨值估算得出。目標價格考慮了與其他市值同行相比的高利潤增長，適中的槓桿率和穩定的信用前景。
投資邏輯
正榮地產採用簡單的資產週轉模型-購買土地，建造和出售，並且着重於改善其債務狀況並降低融資成本。正榮地產保持不超過三年的土儲，並且更傾向選擇具有較短開發週期的中小型地塊來投資開發。此外，正榮地產很大程度上依賴公開市場土地拍賣，同時基本不參與城市更新或投資回報期長的項目。
展望
2020年，正榮地產的年合約銷售達到約人民幣1,420億元，按年增長9%。在正榮地產實現人民幣1,000億的合約銷售以及取得合約銷售全國排名前25名後，管理層目標2021年的合約銷售有適當的增幅，並且更着重在權益銷售的提高。鑑於COVID-19對2020年上半年的建築進度的影響，我們預計正榮地產2020年收入增速約為13%，並且預計2021-2023年會有更高的增長。同時，2020年毛利率預計會穩定在20%左右。由於預計會有更多低成本債務替代以往的高成本債務，而且大部分利息成本會做資本化，預測2021-2023年毛利率會有機會提高。
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