德银：首次覆盖正荣地产(6158.HK)给予买入评级，目标价5.5港元
德意志银行发报告首次覆盖正荣地产(6158.HK)，主要内容如下：
首次覆盖并给予公司“买入”的投资评级：关注高质量发展
首次覆盖正荣地产并给予“买入”评级。鉴于公司强劲的增长前景，包括预期的收益和信用水平的优化，预测未来12个月的目标价格为港币5.5元。正荣地产的快周转策略及严格的财务自律使其在贷款环境偏紧的情况下依然保持良好健康的财务杠杆水平。管理层中期的目标是：1）通过降低成本提高利润，特别是财务成本，其中大部分已经资本化；2）通过改善资产负债表和提高信用评级来降低融资成本；3）提高权益比。
快周转策略
正荣地产倾向较短的开发周期和更快地确认利润，因此较多通过公开市场收购土地。正荣地产的土地储备一般不超过三年，并且更偏好开工时间更快的中小型规模土地。
估值
基于8.4倍市盈率设定目标价格，该价格是基于每股收益的3年复合增长率33.5％和0.25x倍PEG，对应20％/29％的FY20 / 21E的资产净值估算得出。目标价格考虑了与其他市值同行相比的高利润增长，适中的杠杆率和稳定的信用前景。
投资逻辑
正荣地产采用简单的资产周转模型-购买土地，建造和出售，并且着重于改善其债务状况并降低融资成本。正荣地产保持不超过三年的土储，并且更倾向选择具有较短开发周期的中小型地块来投资开发。此外，正荣地产很大程度上依赖公开市场土地拍卖，同时基本不参与城市更新或投资回报期长的项目。
展望
2020年，正荣地产的年合约销售达到约人民币1,420亿元，按年增长9%。在正荣地产实现人民币1,000亿的合约销售以及取得合约销售全国排名前25名后，管理层目标2021年的合约销售有适当的增幅，并且更着重在权益销售的提高。鉴于COVID-19对2020年上半年的建筑进度的影响，我们预计正荣地产2020年收入增速约为13%，并且预计2021-2023年会有更高的增长。同时，2020年毛利率预计会稳定在20%左右。由于预计会有更多低成本债务替代以往的高成本债务，而且大部分利息成本会做资本化，预测2021-2023年毛利率会有机会提高。
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