《業績前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)去年新業務價值跌32% 估去年少賺19%
友邦保險(01299.HK)將於下周五(12日)公布去年業績,由於新冠疫情在全球大流行,衝擊公司在亞太區各地業務,特別是部份東盟地區市場如馬來西亞及新加坡,兼且內地業務於去年第四季期內需準備今年首季「開門紅」業務,本網綜合11間券商預期,其新業務價值介乎25.94億美元至31.34億美元,較2019年新業務價值41.54億美元,按年下跌介乎24.6%至37.6%,中位數為28.28億元按年跌近32%。
綜合12間券商預期友邦2020年純利介乎45億美元至63.57億美元,較2019年新業務價值66.48億美元,按年下跌介乎4.4%至32.3%,中位數53.65億美元,按年下滑19.3%。
綜合7間券商預期,其總收入介乎383.06億美元至449.06億美元,較2019年新業務價值472.42億美元,按年跌幅介乎4.9%-18.9%,中位數433.41億美元按年下跌8.3%。市場關注友邦今年營運指引,在內地業務趨勢,並留意內地若進一步放寬資本管制,以及大灣區金融市場互聯互通,或可為友邦帶來新分銷渠道。
【受累疫情反覆 新業務價值降】
瑞信上周發表報告預期,友邦去年新業務價值錄28億美元,按年跌32%,估計其去年第四季則錄6.89億美元,按實際匯率計按年跌23%;內含價值錄651億美元,按半年增長9%;稅後經營溢利59億美元,按年增長3.1%;每股派息按年增3%至1.3元。
內地業務方面,該行預期公司去年第四季的新業務價值疲弱,然而,在疫情緩和下,新業務銷售今年來表現強勁,首季的新業務價值增長料錄雙位數增長。該行維持友邦的目標價120港元,投資評級在「跑贏大市」不變。
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本網綜合11間券商預期,友邦2020年新業務價值介乎25.94億美元至31.34億美元,較2019年新業務價值41.54億美元,按年下跌介乎24.6%至37.6%,中位數為28.28億元按年跌近32%。
券商│2020年新業務價值預測(美元)│按年變幅
瑞穗|31.34億元|-24.6%
海通國際│29.55億元|-29%
野村│29.49億元|-29%
花旗|28.66億元|-31%
里昂|28.66億元|-31%
匯豐環球研究|28.28億元|-31.9%
瑞信|28.24億元|-32%
中金|28.16億元|-32.2%
高盛|27.83億元|-33%
中銀國際|27.56億元|-33.7%
廣發証券|25.94億元|-37.6%
按友邦2019年新業務價值41.54億美元計算
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本網綜合12間券商預期友邦2020年純利介乎45億美元至63.57億美元,較2019年新業務價值66.48億美元,按年下跌介乎4.4%至32.3%,中位數53.65億美元,按年下滑19.3%。
券商│2020年純利(美元)│按年變幅
海通國際|63.57億元|-4.4%
匯豐環球研究|59.22億元|-10.9%
野村│59.17億元│-11%
麥格理|55.97億元|-15.8%
里昂|55.43億元|-16.6%
瑞信|53.61億元|-19.4%
花旗|53.69億元|-19.2%
瑞穗|52.17億元|-21.5%
中信建投証券|47.75億元|-28.2%
大和|47.15億元|-29.1%
廣發証券|45.28億元|-31.9%
安信証券|45億元|-32.3%
按友邦2019年純利66.48億美元計算
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本網綜合7間券商預期,其總收入介乎383.06億美元至449.06億美元,較2019年新業務價值472.42億美元,按年跌幅介乎4.9%-18.9%,中位數433.41億美元按年下跌8.3%。
券商│2020年總收益(美元)│按年變幅
廣發証券|449.06億元|-4.9%
海通國際|435.43億元|-7.8%
星展|433.98億元|-8.1%
里昂|433.41億元|-8.3%
安信証券|420億元|-11.1%
瑞穗|405.26億元|-14.2%
中信建投証券|383.06億元|-18.9%
按友邦2019年總收益472.42億美元計算
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