憧憬定向降準適時落地 內銀股顯著反彈
《中國證券報》在頭版刊登文章引述分析指,預計3月資金面將繼續以穩為主,最大的擾動項料來自於財政支出和季末考核,而兩者在一定程度上互為對沖。另外,定向降準可能適時落地,但預計釋放的資金相對有限。
文章指,機構預計3月外匯佔款規模變動不大,現金回籠規模下降,法定準備金補繳壓力可控。另外,目前來看,本月央行流動性工具到期造成的回籠壓力有限。最新統計顯示,3月央行逆回購到期量為1,000億人民幣,另有1,000億人民幣中期借貸便利(MLF)到期。在傳統的流動性供求影響因素中,財政收支及季末考核的影響相對值得關注。
除了常規操作,分析人士表示,今年普惠金融定向降準考核可能在3月落地。對於考核可能釋放的資金規模,信達證券首席固收分析師李一爽稱,目前多數銀行已達第二檔準備金率優惠標準,如果維持原考核政策不變,部分城商行及非縣域農商行將受益,預計釋放資金量約1,200億人民幣,相對往年處於較低水平,對流動性總量影響有限。
內銀股今早普遍向上,招商銀行(03968.HK)及郵儲銀行(01658.HK)分別高見62.6元及6.08元,最多升7.28%及5.01%;工商銀行(01398.HK)及農業銀行(01288.HK)則曾升最多5.21%及5.04%。
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