《大行报告》野村上调友邦(01299.HK)目标价至94.17元 评级「中性」
野村发表报告,将友邦保险(01299.HK)2020财年新业务价值(NBV)预测下调4%,指出疫情影响持续到去年下半年,情况较预期差,可能会限制高利润产品的销售,令香港业务NBV利润率下降4个百分点,拖累整体NBV利润率下降2个百分点至56.7%。
该行指,将友邦年化新保费预测下调1%,当中香港上调3%,但因东盟和其他市场下调2%而抵消,预测全年NBV将下降29%,其中香港及中国分别下降63%和4%。
惟野村表示,认为友邦最坏的时间已经过去,并且预计在疫情逐步稳定及通关的憧憬下,NBV将从2021年起逐步恢复,预计2021至2022年将增长25%及30%,当中香港业务预测分别上调1%及2%,年化新保费预测调升5%及6%;中国业务方面,该行将2022年NBV预测上调1%,维持对2021年预测不变。
野村升友邦目标价,由80.68元上调至94.17元,指出美国10年期政府债券收益率近期回升,因此将长期投资回报率预测上调50个基点,与公司管理层目标一致,该行将对其终端业务增长预测提高至4%,维持「中性」评级。
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