憧憬定向降准适时落地 内银股显着反弹
《中国证券报》在头版刊登文章引述分析指,预计3月资金面将继续以稳为主,最大的扰动项料来自於财政支出和季末考核,而两者在一定程度上互为对冲。另外,定向降准可能适时落地,但预计释放的资金相对有限。
文章指,机构预计3月外汇占款规模变动不大,现金回笼规模下降,法定准备金补缴压力可控。另外,目前来看,本月央行流动性工具到期造成的回笼压力有限。最新统计显示,3月央行逆回购到期量为1,000亿人民币,另有1,000亿人民币中期借贷便利(MLF)到期。在传统的流动性供求影响因素中,财政收支及季末考核的影响相对值得关注。
除了常规操作,分析人士表示,今年普惠金融定向降准考核可能在3月落地。对於考核可能释放的资金规模,信达证券首席固收分析师李一爽称,目前多数银行已达第二档准备金率优惠标准,如果维持原考核政策不变,部分城商行及非县域农商行将受益,预计释放资金量约1,200亿人民币,相对往年处於较低水平,对流动性总量影响有限。
内银股今早普遍向上,招商银行(03968.HK)及邮储银行(01658.HK)分别高见62.6元及6.08元,最多升7.28%及5.01%;工商银行(01398.HK)及农业银行(01288.HK)则曾升最多5.21%及5.04%。
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