植耀辉: 恒指优化结果出炉 A股势弱未宜进取
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，恒指公司本周一(1日)正式公布优化恒指谘询总结，未来成份股数目将由现时53只逐步增至最终目标之100只，同时亦会按7个行业组别选出成份股，并会采用迅速纳入基制，缩短上市历史要求至三个月，但继续保持香港公司之代表性，最後则会改善成份股权重分布，对所有成份股采用8%权重上限。由於恒指服务公司目标於明年中将成份股数目增至80只，意味未来每次季检应该也会有恒指「新贵」出现。
笔者认为，增加成份股数目及以划分行业组别有助恒指成份更多元化，而8%权重上限亦可免於单一股份占比过大之风险。惟未来成份股将必然由行业龙头及大市值股所包办，当中绝大部分亦会与新经济股有关，例如上市不久之快手(01024.HK)及京东健康(06618.HK)便属必然之选，亦变相会增加大市之波动性；另一方面，部分股份未必属高市值，但却具有一定代表性，例如太古地产(01972.HK)虽然市值不到1,500亿元，不过属於香港公司之余，在一众地产股中市值亦处较前列位置，因此未来有机会成为染蓝黑马之一。
最後亦不得不谈近期港股表现。港股於周一反弹後昨日又受A股下跌拖累而回落。由於港股本身累升不少，因此出现调整亦属合理，只是大市是否已消化当前利淡消息，则现时仍言之尚早，笔者认为债息带来之影响属短暂，皆因以当前形势，联储局按理不会急於「收水」，执笔之时美国10年期孳息率已回落至1.4厘水平，预期会对股市气氛有正面帮助。反而北水动向以及A股表现似乎更值得大家关注。而且A股自春节假期後表现奇差亦颇令人担心，所以策略上还是采取守势以及稍作减磅会较适合。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)
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A股短期表现将成关键
耀才证券研究部团队称，昨(2日)港股表现反覆回落，A股下跌加上财政司司长就印花税之言论，令港股由升转跌之余，午後跌幅更进一步扩大，港交所(00388.HK)及科技类股份沽压沉重，南向资金亦由净买入转为净沽出。短期後市关键之一仍是「北水」去向，不过A股表现亦会左右投资气氛。预期港股即使能作出反弹，但空间亦相当有限，始终大市仍存在相当多不确定因素，预期大市将继续维持拉锯格局不变。此外，隔晚美股受苹果(AAPL.US)及Tesla(TSLA.US)等科技股下跌拖累，反映市场对成长股份偏好下行，中资股方面，受业绩波动和销售淡季影响，三大造车新势力蔚来(NIO.US)、小鹏(XPEV.US)、理想(LI.US)股价跌幅扩大，或影响港股新能源车股之表现。
从技术分析角度，港股高开低收，并连续第五日出现阴烛，技术上呈弱势，短期宜留意50天线(28,701点)能否守稳，一旦失守，意味自去年11月初至今之上升趋势或会遭打破，後市将进一步转差；惟恒指即使反弹，然而29,800至30,000点阻力亦不轻，除非恒指能一举突破此区间，否则暂仍只会於29,000至30,000点上落。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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