植耀輝: 恆指優化結果出爐 A股勢弱未宜進取
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，恆指公司本周一(1日)正式公布優化恆指諮詢總結，未來成份股數目將由現時53隻逐步增至最終目標之100隻，同時亦會按7個行業組別選出成份股，並會採用迅速納入基制，縮短上市歷史要求至三個月，但繼續保持香港公司之代表性，最後則會改善成份股權重分佈，對所有成份股採用8%權重上限。由於恆指服務公司目標於明年中將成份股數目增至80隻，意味未來每次季檢應該也會有恆指「新貴」出現。
筆者認為，增加成份股數目及以劃分行業組別有助恆指成份更多元化，而8%權重上限亦可免於單一股份佔比過大之風險。惟未來成份股將必然由行業龍頭及大市值股所包辦，當中絕大部分亦會與新經濟股有關，例如上市不久之快手(01024.HK)及京東健康(06618.HK)便屬必然之選，亦變相會增加大市之波動性；另一方面，部分股份未必屬高市值，但卻具有一定代表性，例如太古地產(01972.HK)雖然市值不到1,500億元，不過屬於香港公司之餘，在一眾地產股中市值亦處較前列位置，因此未來有機會成為染藍黑馬之一。
最後亦不得不談近期港股表現。港股於周一反彈後昨日又受A股下跌拖累而回落。由於港股本身累升不少，因此出現調整亦屬合理，只是大市是否已消化當前利淡消息，則現時仍言之尚早，筆者認為債息帶來之影響屬短暫，皆因以當前形勢，聯儲局按理不會急於「收水」，執筆之時美國10年期孳息率已回落至1.4厘水平，預期會對股市氣氛有正面幫助。反而北水動向以及A股表現似乎更值得大家關注。而且A股自春節假期後表現奇差亦頗令人擔心，所以策略上還是採取守勢以及稍作減磅會較適合。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)
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A股短期表現將成關鍵
耀才證券研究部團隊稱，昨(2日)港股表現反覆回落，A股下跌加上財政司司長就印花稅之言論，令港股由升轉跌之餘，午後跌幅更進一步擴大，港交所(00388.HK)及科技類股份沽壓沉重，南向資金亦由淨買入轉為淨沽出。短期後市關鍵之一仍是「北水」去向，不過A股表現亦會左右投資氣氛。預期港股即使能作出反彈，但空間亦相當有限，始終大市仍存在相當多不確定因素，預期大市將繼續維持拉鋸格局不變。此外，隔晚美股受蘋果(AAPL.US)及Tesla(TSLA.US)等科技股下跌拖累，反映市場對成長股份偏好下行，中資股方面，受業績波動和銷售淡季影響，三大造車新勢力蔚來(NIO.US)、小鵬(XPEV.US)、理想(LI.US)股價跌幅擴大，或影響港股新能源車股之表現。
從技術分析角度，港股高開低收，並連續第五日出現陰燭，技術上呈弱勢，短期宜留意50天線(28,701點)能否守穩，一旦失守，意味自去年11月初至今之上升趨勢或會遭打破，後市將進一步轉差；惟恆指即使反彈，然而29,800至30,000點阻力亦不輕，除非恆指能一舉突破此區間，否則暫仍只會於29,000至30,000點上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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