植耀輝: 債息回落美股急升 港股表現還看北水
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，美股隔晚(1日)表現理想，債息回落加上科技股大幅反彈，三大指數均有可觀升幅，當中道指上升603點或1.95%，收報31,535點，標普500指數亦升90點或2.38%，收報3,901點，納指升幅更大，上升396點或3%，收報13,588點。
至於恆指方面，經過上周大跌後昨日走勢稍為有所改善，加上美股隔晚急升，或有助港股今日(2日)進一步反彈，只是後市展望仍較不明朗，單是債息未來去向已令投資者大傷腦筋。不過筆者卻較關注北水動態，特別是昨日雖然大市反彈，但港股通資金淨流入不足一億港元。過往北水被視為有利港股之其中一個重要因素，所以相關情況仍要加倍留意。至於大市行情，則預期將繼續於29,000至30,000點水平上落。
股份方面，藍籌新貴表現不俗，阿里健康(00241.HK)、龍湖集團(00960.HK)及海底撈(06862.HK)便分別上升9.4%、3.7%及8.2%。短期由於受到被動式基金追貨，相信股價仍有上升可能；值得留意的是，下次成份股季檢將採取優化建議後之方式，意味將有更多具資格股份被納入成份股之列，故不妨先行部署其他「大熱」，包括京東健康(06618.HK)等大市值或行業龍頭股份。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)
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業績股之表現將成市場焦點
耀才證券研究部團隊稱，隔晚(1日)美股顯著反彈，美國10年期國債息率回落，加上眾議院順利通過1.9萬億美元新紓困方案，刺激美股造好，納指大升3%，道指升幅亦接近2%。港股ADR亦普遍上升，「黑期」預示恆指今早(2日)將先行高開200點以上。恆指短期後市有望繼續出現技術反彈，而市況較大可能維持炒股不炒市的現象，個別業績股或盈喜股之表現將成焦點。海底撈(06862.HK)發盈警，料去年淨利潤跌9成，但投資者宜留意公司於下半年已順利扭虧為盈，股價於短期後市有望繼續受追捧。另外，JS環球生活(01691.HK)發盈喜，料全年綜合盈利增幅增至不少3.85億美元，股價今日有望繼續受到資金追捧。
港股今日有望裂口高開維持反彈勢頭。從小時圖上看，恆指短線阻力位在29,600點，而技術指標MACD已轉發「熊牛」之利好訊號，只要此勢頭不變，短線有望續處技術反彈階段中。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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