盛松成:中国上半年之前不宜收紧货币政策
人行调查统计司前司长盛松成认为,中国当前经济面临的主要任务是恢复和稳定经济增长以及防范系统性金融风险,至少在今年上半年之前,都不宜收紧货币政策。
他还指出,2021年GDP增速将很大程度上取决於消费的恢复,原因是去年全年最终消费支出对GDP增长的贡献率为-22%,是历史最低点。而同期资本形成总额和净出口对GDP增长的贡献率分别为94.1%和28%,均创历史新高。
针对近期美国十年期国债收益率较快上升问题,盛松成认为,美债收益率上升的根本原因是美债发行过多,供给大於需求。具体而言,美联储持续购入美债,目的是配合财政部压低收益率(尤其是长期利率),而收益率的上升与美联储的政策意图相违背,甚至可能导致美联储购买越多、美债收益率反而越高的情况。
盛松成还指出,从中长期看人民币汇率处於升值趋势,但也要防止升值过快,赞成长期资本投资中国,但需要防止短期内大量投机资金流入国内,推升资产价格,赚取利差和汇差双重收益,扰乱中国货币政策的独立施行。
此外,他认为,当前美国在科技和金融两个领域与中国脱钩的态势日益明显,中国可进一步推动资本账户双向开放,避免对中资企业两头「卡脖子」。谈到房地产问题时,他指出,通过货币政策调控房价无异於缘木求鱼。
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