《大行报告》高盛料MSCI中国指数潜在回报14% 估中资股今年盈利增长21%
高盛发表研究报告指,虽然上星期MSCI中国指数回落10%,但年初至今计仍上涨6%,主要是受全球增长、利率及通货膨胀预期重新定价等因素所带动,指出反映风险调整表现的夏普比率录历史低位,而市场已录得正回报,认为目前市场由抱有希望的态度,转变为进入增长阶段。
报告指,中国股票目前估值水平为16.6倍,对比2020年3月份为12.3倍,相当於2.4个标准差,又指出市场对「中国折让」的争论正在逐渐淡化,中国股票的市盈率与全球主要资产类别价格相比未似往日的低水平,加上美国利率上升及中国政策正常化,料将限制估值上行空间,促使投资转向。
该行对中国新及旧经济股都保持乐观看法,料中资股今、明两年盈利将21%及15%,考虑到中国企业的长期增长潜力及政策持续改革,重申至今年底MSCI中国指数目标为132,料潜在回报率达14%。
高盛对内地保险及能源业予「增持」看法,原材料行业「与大市同步」,并维持对零售、互联网销售、交通运输及耐用消费品的「增持」评级,将医药及传媒行业降至「与大市同步」。
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