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《大行报告》中金料加股票印花税每日新增成本3,900万元 直接影响有限
阿思达克 02-26 14:34
中金发表研究报告指,上调股票印花税为近三十年来首次。疫情以来,香港经济备受冲击,2020年一季度GDP同比增速下滑幅度超过9%,超过1998年亚洲金融危机和2008年金融危机,私人消费下滑尤为严重。在此背景下,财政状况也明显吃紧,2020年财政赤字扩大到GDP的 5.8%,也是近30年以来最大。因此,在经济、企业、居民收入和消费依然承受压力、而金融市场相对活跃的背景下(港交所2020年总成交超过32万亿,较2019年增长50%,近期主板单日成交额一度超过3,500亿),政府拟提高印花税来增加政府税收。

该行指,从财政收入角度,根据财政司司长陈茂波的预测,印花税上调使得2021/22财年印花税总收入增加129亿元至920亿元,增16%。2009年以来,香港徵收印花税为香港创收620至950亿元,占香港总财政收入12%左右。其中,股票交易印花税占约50%左右,大致在310-480亿元区间,这样算下来提高印花税大约提振财政收入2%左右。

该行又指,对股票市场影响主要在於提高交易摩擦成本。从市场交易额角度测算,自2020年7月以来,港股日成交金额在1,000-2,500亿元左右,平均为1,300亿元左右(其中,2020年沪市港股通买盘加卖盘平均每日成交130亿,深市港股通为113亿)。如果将交易印花税提升0.03个百分点,粗略估算对应每天新增成本约3,900万元。

该行认为,短期印花税的上调可能更多从情绪上扰动市场,叠加近期对於利率和通胀上行的担忧,可能会放大波动,但由於直接影响相对有限,因此不至於逆转基本面改善和流向性向好的大方向。(ic/u) ~

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