植耀辉: 负面因素冲击港股 短期续波动
阿思达克 02-25 10:53
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股昨日(24日)受多个负面消息冲击而大跌，跌幅达到914点，收报29,718点，成交金额达到3,530亿元。影响大市表现及气氛包括外围市况波动，以及财政预算案公布，将上调股票印花税，由0.1%升至0.13%有关。消息亦令港交所(00388.HK)急挫8.8%，连带其他股份一并大跌。事实上，不只港交所，大部分早前当炒之股份均遭到抛售，不少跌幅达到一成以上，同时北水净流出达到200亿元，反映印花税上调所带来之影响。
当然，北水沽货与印花税是否有关连值得探讨，但观乎A股投资者过往对印花税之调整反应相当大，例如在2007年5月30日宣布上调印花税，当日两市跌幅便达到6%，所以北水因今次事件而沽货亦变得相当合理。至於未来北水回否回归，现阶段仍言之尚早，何况A股近期走势亦较差，加上外围市况动荡，恐怕港股仍会维持震荡情况，而且30,000点关口已失，短期内若未能重上该水平，预期将成为後市一大阻力，建议投资者现阶段还是先抱守势会较佳。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，持有港交所股份)
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大市3万点关口争持 观望企业业绩
耀才证券研究部团队称，隔晚(24日)美股反弹，美国十年期债息曾升至1.4厘楼上，道指早段最多再跌116点，但鲍威尔放鸽，认为美国或需时3年才能实现2%通胀目标，市场预期美国续维持低息政策，股债一同反弹，道指尾段最多弹472点，收市仍升424点。港股ADR反弹逾300点，恒指将重返3万点关口争持，新经济股於短期後市能否持续反弹将成关键；个股方面希慎(00014.HK)、银娱(00027.HK)、ASM太平洋(00522.HK)、太平洋航运(2343.HK)、渣打集团(2888.HK)、百济神州(6160.HK)等公布全年业绩，新地(00016.HK)及信置(00083.HK)则公布中期业绩。。
港股於本周波幅异常，恒指於过去五个交易日的日均波幅接近700点水平，而期指波幅於过去两日更接近900点，新旧经济股走势各异，资金轮动势头明显，但整体而言，港股气氛仍牛气冲天，似乎期指结算日前之走势将会继续波动。恒指目前仍徘徊於30,000点至31,000点关口大幅上落，短线而言，只要恒指不再跌穿30,000点关口，目前不宜过分悲观。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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