植耀輝: 負面因素衝擊港股 短期續波動
阿思達克 02-25 10:53
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股昨日(24日)受多個負面消息衝擊而大跌，跌幅達到914點，收報29,718點，成交金額達到3,530億元。影響大市表現及氣氛包括外圍市況波動，以及財政預算案公布，將上調股票印花稅，由0.1%升至0.13%有關。消息亦令港交所(00388.HK)急挫8.8%，連帶其他股份一併大跌。事實上，不只港交所，大部分早前當炒之股份均遭到拋售，不少跌幅達到一成以上，同時北水淨流出達到200億元，反映印花稅上調所帶來之影響。
當然，北水沽貨與印花稅是否有關連值得探討，但觀乎A股投資者過往對印花稅之調整反應相當大，例如在2007年5月30日宣布上調印花稅，當日兩市跌幅便達到6%，所以北水因今次事件而沽貨亦變得相當合理。至於未來北水回否回歸，現階段仍言之尚早，何況A股近期走勢亦較差，加上外圍市況動盪，恐怕港股仍會維持震盪情況，而且30,000點關口已失，短期內若未能重上該水平，預期將成為後市一大阻力，建議投資者現階段還是先抱守勢會較佳。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有港交所股份)
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大市3萬點關口爭持 觀望企業業績
耀才證券研究部團隊稱，隔晚(24日)美股反彈，美國十年期債息曾升至1.4厘樓上，道指早段最多再跌116點，但鮑威爾放鴿，認為美國或需時3年才能實現2%通脹目標，市場預期美國續維持低息政策，股債一同反彈，道指尾段最多彈472點，收市仍升424點。港股ADR反彈逾300點，恆指將重返3萬點關口爭持，新經濟股於短期後市能否持續反彈將成關鍵；個股方面希慎(00014.HK)、銀娛(00027.HK)、ASM太平洋(00522.HK)、太平洋航運(2343.HK)、渣打集團(2888.HK)、百濟神州(6160.HK)等公布全年業績，新地(00016.HK)及信置(00083.HK)則公布中期業績。。
港股於本周波幅異常，恆指於過去五個交易日的日均波幅接近700點水平，而期指波幅於過去兩日更接近900點，新舊經濟股走勢各異，資金輪動勢頭明顯，但整體而言，港股氣氛仍牛氣衝天，似乎期指結算日前之走勢將會繼續波動。恆指目前仍徘徊於30,000點至31,000點關口大幅上落，短線而言，只要恆指不再跌穿30,000點關口，目前不宜過分悲觀。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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