《大行报告》美银证券上调中海油(00883.HK)目标价至11.8元 为三大油企首选
美银证券发表研究报告,在石油供应较预期紧绌,以及美国经济增长较预期高的情况下,将今年布兰特油价预测由每桶50美元调升至每桶60美元,其中第二季料可达70美元,及维持明年与长远油价预期在55美元。同时亦调升纽约期油价格今明两年预测分别至每桶57及52美元。相信近期油股股价复苏已部份反映有关因素,认为主要油股仍有上升空间。该行预期未来油价每调整1美元,料将带动中海油(00883.HK)盈利5%,中石油(00857.HK)盈利可升4%,及中石化(00386.HK)盈利亦可升2%。在油价复苏及碳中和主题下,预期中国油企继续针对上游产量恢复,特别是天然气产量和储量发现。
该行调升2021及22年中海油盈利预测分别64%及11%,目标价升12%至11.8元,维持评级「买入」,是该行行业首选,反映新油价和产量提升预期,该行又看好中海油作为纯上游油企,受惠油价上升,及其成本最低,集团亦计划在今年起增产,加上其估值吸引。
该行维持中石油「买入」评级,目标价降11%至3.2元,降其今年盈利预期22%,以反映管道收入减少抵销了油价上升的利好因素。该行升中石化今明两年盈利预测17%及25%,反映下游业务持续改善,重申评级「中性」,目标价由4元升至4.6元。
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