《大行報告》美銀證券上調中海油(00883.HK)目標價至11.8元 為三大油企首選
美銀證券發表研究報告,在石油供應較預期緊絀,以及美國經濟增長較預期高的情況下,將今年布蘭特油價預測由每桶50美元調升至每桶60美元,其中第二季料可達70美元,及維持明年與長遠油價預期在55美元。同時亦調升紐約期油價格今明兩年預測分別至每桶57及52美元。相信近期油股股價復甦已部份反映有關因素,認為主要油股仍有上升空間。該行預期未來油價每調整1美元,料將帶動中海油(00883.HK)盈利5%,中石油(00857.HK)盈利可升4%,及中石化(00386.HK)盈利亦可升2%。在油價復甦及碳中和主題下,預期中國油企繼續針對上游產量恢復,特別是天然氣產量和儲量發現。
該行調升2021及22年中海油盈利預測分別64%及11%,目標價升12%至11.8元,維持評級「買入」,是該行行業首選,反映新油價和產量提升預期,該行又看好中海油作為純上游油企,受惠油價上升,及其成本最低,集團亦計劃在今年起增產,加上其估值吸引。
該行維持中石油「買入」評級,目標價降11%至3.2元,降其今年盈利預期22%,以反映管道收入減少抵銷了油價上升的利好因素。該行升中石化今明兩年盈利預測17%及25%,反映下游業務持續改善,重申評級「中性」,目標價由4元升至4.6元。
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