《大行報告》美銀證券:港股屬全球交易成本最高市場 加印花稅對港交所(00388.HK)長線影響負面
美銀證券發表報告表示,就財政司司長決定提交法案調整股票印花稅稅率,由現時買賣雙方按交易金額各付0.1%提高至0.13%,指相關加稅提議於過去四年市場均無預期,而港交所(00388.HK)近年亦致力降低交易成本以提高港股交投量。
該行認為,港府上調股票印花稅稅率提議,對港交所短期營業額影響屬中性的,因為港股市場依然強勁,投資者傾向於忽略交易成本的上升,而證券經紀可能會降低散戶投資者的佣金率。但從長期來看,高昂的交易成本將不利於港交所擴大及吸引投資者,構成負面影響。
美銀證券指,港股屬全球交易成本最高的主要市場之一。對於普通投資者而言,其交易成本包括(1)佣金介乎0.03至0.25%、(2)印花稅0.10%(上調後為0.13%)、(3)交易徵費為0.0027%、(4)交易費用0.005%及(5)清算費0.01%
該行指,印花稅是交易成本的主要部分,尤其是在經紀降低佣金率時。隨著越來越多的線上證券交易,並將其佣金率從傳統的15至25個基點降低到5至10個基點,印花稅在總額中所佔的比例進一步增加。當市場強勁時,投資者往往會忽略成本的上漲,而佣金率的下降也將使總體成本基本保持不變,甚至更低。但對於機構投資者而言,由於不太可能大幅降低佣金率,其影響將更加不利。
此外,就港交所公布去年純利按年升23%至115億元,收入升18%,該行指港交所業績強勁,但相信正面推動因素已在股價反映,該行上調港股今年日均成交預測由1,500億元升至2,000億元,調高港股明年日均成交預測由1,700億元升至2,400億元,上調今明兩年盈測12%至15%‵,維持對港交所「中性」評級,調高對其目標價由482元升至549元。
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