《大行報告》麥格理:市場準備迎商品「超級周期」 中鋁、洛鉬、中國東方及贛鋒鋰業上行空間大
麥格理發表研究報告,受惠寬鬆流動性及疫苗帶動經濟強勁復甦,市場已開始準備迎接或長達兩年商品「超級周期」。本周銅價升至每噸約9,000美元,創九年高(年初至今累升15%);鋁、鋰、鈷及鋼鐵年初至今亦累升2%至59%創多年高。
該行就所覆蓋資源股的盈利/估值潛在上行作情境分析,相對現價,潛在估值上行幅度最大為中國鋁業(02600.HK)(達96%)、隨後為洛陽鉬業(03993.HK)(90%)、中國東方集團(00581.HK)(72%)、贛鋒鋰業(01772.HK)(70%)、寶鋼(600019.SH)(43%)及鞍鋼(00347.HK)(24%),而紫金(02899.HK)及馬鋼(00323.HK)的上行空間相對較小。
報告稱,銅是現時市場熱炒商品。受惠全球電動化及去碳趨勢,看到洛鉬今年純利上行空間達96%,股價上行空間達90%。紫金現價已反映有色金屬價格上行,上行空間有限。
此外,麥格理表示,碳酸鋰及氫氧化鋰價格今年累升37%及20%,以現貨價計,料贛鋒鋰業今年純利上行空間達60%,股價上行空間達70%。市場預期今年鋰價將進一步升至每噸8萬至10萬元人民幣。
報告解釋,鋁受惠於電動車輕量化趨勢及住宅竣工加快,現貨價計中鋁潛在股價上行空間達96%。另考慮現貨鋼價及鐵礦砂價格,料寶鋼、鞍鋼及中國東方有24%至72%的上行空間,而馬鋼估值已高昂。
麥格理料「再通脹」投資主題短期持續,料在全球電動化、去碳減排及中國新基建支持下,銅、鋁、鋰及鈷的長期基本面將改善。該行重申今年首選:贛鋒鋰業、洛鉬、紫金、福耀玻璃(03606.HK)、中國建材(03323.HK)、玖紙(02689.HK)及信義玻璃(00868.HK)。
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