【中信鋼鐵】鋼鐵投資價值或將超越2017年供給側改革時期
需求端在整體宏觀經濟復甦的驅動下，製造業海內外共振上行主線明晰，同時建築材需求的韌性也值得期待。供應端碳達峯大背景約束有望帶來行業供應超預期收縮，我們判斷鋼鐵行業將出現明顯供需缺口，行業利潤中樞有望顯著提升。當前時點我們認為處於低利潤、低估值狀態的鋼鐵行業已具備很高的投資性價比，持續重點推薦寶鋼股份、南鋼股份、馬鋼股份、三鋼閩光，建議關注華菱鋼鐵。
需求爆發是鋼鐵股投資的最主要觸發因素
需求端的爆發有望給鋼鐵股票投資帶來兩個好處，一個是更容易形成海內外兩端的共振，另一個是行情的持續性更強。從目前熱卷的海內外價差來看，當前美國熱軋價格已經達到近60年來的新高，而國內價格則仍明顯低於2018年的價格，在製造業整體復甦的大趨勢之下，無論是從外需出口還是內需爆發的維度，後續鋼價持續上漲都值得期待。在製造業的持續恢復以及地產基建端的韌性支撐下，預計2021年需求端同比增長4%。
供應端有望出現超預期收縮，鋼鐵行業在今年有望形成明顯供需缺口
在實現碳達峯目標的大背景下，工信部自去年12月份以來連續提到鋼鐵產量在2021年要實現同比負增長的目標，並且已經就壓縮產量提出了四種可能的推進方式。雖然在當前時點暫時還沒有看到對產業端生產有實質性的影響，但我們判斷鋼鐵供應端在今年的壓縮有望大概率超市場預期。在需求的拉動下，行業有望出現明顯的供需缺口，甚至不亞於2017年供給側改革時期。
近年來龍頭鋼企降本增效效果顯著，需求上行週期將帶來明顯的利潤彈性
近幾年在鋼鐵行業偏扁平的週期中，包括寶鋼股份、華菱鋼鐵、方大特鋼、南鋼股份等一系列龍頭公司均進行了大量的控費降本提效，人均鋼產量和以及噸鋼成本費用已經明顯優化。由於成本端的控制要強於上一輪週期，在當前噸鋼利潤偏低的基礎之上，隨着需求的樂觀預期逐步落地，鋼價進一步上漲帶來的利潤彈性有望明顯高於上一輪週期，估值有明顯提升空間，鋼鐵行業有望迎來戴維斯雙擊。
風險因素
政策落地不及預期風險；終端需求不及預期。
投資策略
需求端在整體宏觀經濟復甦的驅動下，製造業海內外共振上行主線明晰，同時建築材需求的韌性也值得期待。供應端碳達峯大背景約束有望帶來行業供應超預期收縮，我們判斷鋼鐵行業將出現明顯供需缺口，隨之而來的行業利潤中樞有望顯著提升。當前時點我們認為處於低利潤、低估值狀態的鋼鐵行業已具備很高的投資性價比，持續重點推薦寶鋼股份、南鋼股份、馬鋼股份、三鋼閩光，建議關注華菱鋼鐵。
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