《大行报告》高盛上调布油预测至每桶75美元 供应料持续落後需求
高盛分析员Damien Courvalin等发表报告,指由於全球能源需求复苏步伐快过油组及夥伴国(OPEC+)、页岩油及伊朗的供应回应,油价升势将较原先预期更早出现,且升幅大过原先预期。报告称,至7月底前能源消耗将回复至疫情前水平,而在油价上升下,主要生产国产出仍高度缺乏弹性(highly inelastic)。报告上调布兰特期油价格预测,增幅每桶10美元,料下季见每桶70美元,随後三个月料见每桶75美元。
布兰特期油年内累升逾20%,高盛称,沙特单方面削减产出、需求展望改善,以及投资者以期油为未来再通胀环境提早部署,支持油价反弹至疫情前水平。
高盛以多个原因解释供应料持续落後需求,OPEC+料持续落後市场再平衡,特别是全球消耗库存的速度加快。另北美以外,全球主要非OPEC+生产国没增加生产迹象,未来一年石油供应或低於该行预测达每日90万桶。美股业绩期确认大型油企,仍专注於回馈现金予股东。最後,美国政府取态或意味伊朗石油产出短期不会增加。
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