《大行報告》高盛上調布油預測至每桶75美元 供應料持續落後需求
高盛分析員Damien Courvalin等發表報告,指由於全球能源需求復甦步伐快過油組及夥伴國(OPEC+)、頁岩油及伊朗的供應回應,油價升勢將較原先預期更早出現,且升幅大過原先預期。報告稱,至7月底前能源消耗將回復至疫情前水平,而在油價上升下,主要生產國產出仍高度缺乏彈性(highly inelastic)。報告上調布蘭特期油價格預測,增幅每桶10美元,料下季見每桶70美元,隨後三個月料見每桶75美元。
布蘭特期油年內累升逾20%,高盛稱,沙特單方面削減產出、需求展望改善,以及投資者以期油為未來再通脹環境提早部署,支持油價反彈至疫情前水平。
高盛以多個原因解釋供應料持續落後需求,OPEC+料持續落後市場再平衡,特別是全球消耗庫存的速度加快。另北美以外,全球主要非OPEC+生產國沒增加生產跡象,未來一年石油供應或低於該行預測達每日90萬桶。美股業績期確認大型油企,仍專注於回饋現金予股東。最後,美國政府取態或意味伊朗石油產出短期不會增加。
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