植耀輝: 恆指連升第三周 匯控(00005.HK)派息成焦點
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,港股上周表現反覆,在憧憬內地復市下,恆指周初一度創近年新高,但隨著A股表現不似預期,北水亦未見大舉流入下,恆指走勢亦有所調整,不過在30,000點水平見有支持並出現反彈,結果全周計恆指仍能升超過470點,收報30,644點,連續第三個星期上升。
至於港股能否延續升勢,現時仍有待觀察,因大市短期似乎存在不少變數,特別是A股及北水動向。春節假期後內流動性似乎有所收緊,雖屬正常現象,但市場似乎有所反應過度,結果A股復市後表現稍令人失望,不過筆者相信情況僅屬短線,在A股交投仍暢旺下表現料可有所改善;不過北水流入有所減慢,甚至乎出現淨沽出情況則值得關注,始終港股年初至今能有理想表現,北水推動可說是功不可沒,所以未來動態須加倍留意。
最後就是藍籌業績表現,打頭陣的匯控(00005.HK)將於周二(23日)公布業績,投資者最關注的莫過於派息事宜。其同業巴克萊銀行上周五宣布恢復派息,而大行亦預期匯控亦將恢復;對筆者而言,重點應放在2021年前景預測身上。所以預期大市暫會維持爭持格局,暫於30,000至31,000點整固。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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舊經濟股有望繼續支撐大市
耀才研究部稱,美股三大指數於上周五(19日)個別發展,銅價大漲4%成為市場焦點,高盛再度提升銅價預測,料銅市供求差額十年最大,12個月的銅價預測由原先的1萬美元升至1.05萬美元。「黑期」今早升逾200點,美國10年期債息亦再重拾升勢,今早曾高見1.365厘水準,勢頭有利一眾舊經濟股繼續支撐大市,恆指有望延續港股上周五下午的反彈勢頭。
恆指於上周五當日出現V型反彈,指數當日修補完2月16日的上升裂口後馬上回穩,整個尋頂之旅仍未有結束。短線而言,只要恆指仍於後市企穩10天線之上,指數於月底前仍有可能再創月內新高。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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