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高盛料铜供应呈十年来最严重短缺 价格或升至历史新高
阿思达克 02-22 08:26
高盛分析师发表报告,指各国央行释放流动性及各国采取财政政策支持新冠疫後经济,不但资产价格飞涨,以铜为代表的商品价格亦飞升。报告警告铜出现历史性短缺,价格或升至历史新高。

报告指中国新年假期後,投资者大幅增购铜,且库存有限,使铜出现10年来最严重的供应短缺,触发铜价急升。报告指上海期货交易所持仓合约目前仅为32.4万张,较去年11月的近期高位37.7万张低16%,较历史高位更低四成。报告认为现季度至今的反季绩库存销耗,加剧年初已处非常低水平库存的流失。类似情况曾於2004年发生,趋势显示未来数月短缺风险高企。

报告认为铜的基本展望仍极为乐观,没有理由相信铜价将反趋势而行。报告预计短缺情况在今年最为严重,意味铜价在1年内将见新高,情况在2023至2024年铜产量高峰时才会扭转。

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