星展香港料今年內地樓價按年持平至升5% 看好中海外、萬科、旭輝及龍光
星展銀行(香港)研究部中國房地產業分析主管王丹預期,今年全年內地樓價料按年表現持平至上升5%,銷售面積按年下跌5%至10%,令全年內地房地產市場銷售額將按年下跌5%。
星展預期,今年全年內地按揭貸款增幅為高單位數增長,開發貸款則按年呈低單位數增長,均較較往年約16%水平低,反映樓價向上飆升壓力有所緩解。但王丹提醒,疫情令去年賣地較少,房企未能及時補充可售資源,因此未來仍會出現供應不足導致樓價上升的壓力。
去年全國土地供應為歷史低位,房企只投入合約銷售額約40%去補充土儲,較2017年高峰的76%有所下降。她預期,去年當局出台管控企業融資的「三條紅線」新政,相信降槓桿繼續為大勢所趨,因此估計內房今年投地預算將維持與去年相若比例。
王丹指,今年市場仍有提升風險偏好的傾向,投資者取向或由新經濟轉移至舊經濟股,加上人民幣升值、南向資金流入,目前股息率較債息率高出約4%,亦可能吸引資金回流內房板塊。她預期,疫情影響下內房即將公布的年度業績或較市場預測低約5%,帶來入市機會,看好中海外(00688.HK)、萬科(02202.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)及龍光(03380.HK)。
物管方面,她指出今年行業分化情況更明顯,當中龍頭企業增長表現繼續強勁,首選有母公司支持的碧桂園服務(06098.HK)及融創服務(01516.HK)。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.