《业绩前瞻》券商料恒生(00011.HK)去年经调整盈利跌32% 每股派息5.5元
恒生银行(00011.HK)将於下周二(23日)公布去年业绩,料受新冠疫情大流行拖累,令拨备支出趋升(料平均升逾63%)及营运受挑战,本网综合5间券商预测恒生银行2020年经调整盈利预测(就额外一级资本票据之相关扣减作调整盈利),介乎159.31亿元至176.38亿元,较2019年同期244.21亿元,按年下跌27.8%至34.8%,中位数为166.5亿元按年跌31.8%。
本网综合5间券商预测恒生银行2020年净利息收入介乎273.48亿元至286亿元,按年下跌11.3%至15.2%,中位数为267.88亿元按年跌17%。投资者关注恒生派息方面,综合4间券商预测恒生银行2020年每股股息预测介乎4.7元至5.5元,按年下滑33%至49%,中位数为5.5元按年跌33%。
【受疫情拖累 盈利派息降】
美银证券估计恒生银行去年净利息收入按年跌15.2%、净息差为1.75%按年跌0.45个百分点、料恒生去年总体非利息收入录89.7亿元按年倒退20.2%、估计其去年拨备支出按年升59%至26.8亿元,料经调整盈利166.5亿元按年下滑31.8%,估计每股派息5.5元按年跌33%,派息比率为63%,料其至去年底普通股权一级资本比率降至16%。
摩根士丹利估计恒生去年经调整纯利按年倒退35%至159.31亿元、料净利息收入按年跌18.7%至262.31亿元、料贷款增长2%、净息差为1.64%;该行料恒生去年总体非利息收入95.73亿元按年跌15%,料每股经调整盈利降35%至8.33元,估计每股全年派息降33%至5.5元,料现金股本回报率由2019年15.2%降至期内9.5%。该行料港银股今年复苏较慢,料恒生2021年股本回报率稍为回升至9.8%。
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本网综合5间券商预测恒生银行2020年经调整盈利预测(就额外一级资本票据之相关扣减作调整盈利),介乎159.31亿元至176.38亿元,较2019年同期244.21亿元,按年下跌27.8%至34.8%,中位数为166.5亿元按年跌31.8%。
券商│2020年经调整盈利预测(港元)│按年变幅
花旗|176.38亿元|-27.8%
高盛|167.39亿元|-31.5%
美银证券|166.5亿元|-31.8%
海通国际|162.2亿元|-33.6%
摩根士丹利|159.31亿元|-34.8%
按恒生银行2019年就额外一级资本票据之相关扣减後调整之盈利244.21亿元计算
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本网综合5间券商预测恒生银行2020年净利息收入介乎273.48亿元至286亿元,按年下跌11.3%至15.2%,中位数为267.88亿元按年跌17%。
券商│2020年净利息收入预测(港元)│按年变幅
法巴|286亿元|-11.3%
美银证券|273.48亿元|-15.2%
海通国际|267.88亿元|-16.9%
花旗|265.25亿元|-17.8%
摩根士丹利|262.31亿元|-18.7%
按恒生银行2019年净利息收入322.55亿元计算
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综合4间券商预测恒生银行2020年信贷损失变动及其他信贷减值提拨预测介乎27.21亿元至30亿元,按年升48.1%至68.2%,中位数为30亿元按年升63.3%。
券商│2020年信贷损失变动及其他信贷减值提拨预测(港元)│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│30亿元│+68.2%
海通国际│30.42亿元│+65.6%
法巴│29.89亿元│+62.7%
花旗│27.21亿元│+48.1%
按恒生银行2019年预期信贷损失变动及其他信贷减值提拨18.37亿元计
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综合4间券商预测恒生银行2020年每股股息预测介乎4.7元至5.5元,按年下滑33%至49%,中位数为5.5元按年跌33%。
券商│2020年每股股息预测(港元)│按年变幅
摩根士丹利│5.5元│-33%
美银证券│5.5元│-33%
花旗│5.5元│-33%
海通国际│4.7元│-42.7%
按恒生银行2019年每股股息8.2元计算
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