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《大行报告》瑞银料内地首季经济增长达19% 受惠工厂提早复工及消费强劲
阿思达克 02-18 10:43
瑞银发表研究报告,引述国家商务部公布全国核心零售商及餐饮企业农历年收入按年升29%。撇除去年低基数,收入较2019年水平高4.9%;增幅较2020年末季与2018年末季比较的12%增幅放缓,源於城际出行减少、持续社交距离措施及季节性工作时数较以往长。不过,今年春节「在地渡假」值得关注,在地消费大致抵销城际出行转弱的影响。

报告称,工厂在春节後早於正常复工,进一步支持经济,源於许多民工没回乡度岁。近期新闻反映一些下游生产企业(特别是出口企业)及本地基建在2月15至16日已复工,较以往通常在元宵才复工提早达十日。该行引用用电数据指,江苏及浙江等民工输入省份耗电量增长多於民工输出省份。瑞银认为,工业生产在农历年前已高於趋势,额外生产日数对消化强劲积压出口订单、及开启接受新订单的空间有帮助。

瑞银称,考虑到农历年消费及生产具韧性,对内地今年经济增长达9%的预测有信心,高於市场预期的8.4%。该行料今年首季内地经济按年增长达19%。

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