《大行报告》中金料中海油(00883.HK)未来半年盈利有望显着上修 目标价10.3元
中金发表研究报告指,中海油(00883.HK)近期股价回升,基本收复去年底事件性风险带来的冲击。
该行指,市场预期2021至2022年度中海油的盈利分别为419亿及548亿元人民币,相信未来半年盈利将进入显着的向上修正周期,以布兰特期油年均价格约60美元计,全年盈利可望达到600亿人民币以上。
中海油今年资本开支定为900亿至1,000亿元人民币,较2020年的795亿元人民币提升13%至26%,超出该行和市场的预期。中金预期,可支持产量至2025年度每日200万桶当量。中海油亦加大对中国近海投入占比,占今年资本支出72%,高於过去几年平均65%左右的水平,预计未来产量增量主力仍是来自中国南海区域,估计2021至2023年产量指引将提升,复合增长幅度料超过7%。
惟中金指出,虽然过去60个工作天主要外资券商已净卖出超过80亿股,抛售风险基本解除,但目前股价仍有较大的折扣,预期油价每上涨1%,盈利上行空间为2%,维持盈利预测及「跑赢行业」评级,目标价10.3元不变。
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