《业绩前瞻》券商料渣打(02888.HK)去年法定税前溢利跌47% 估每股派息15美仙
渣打集团(02888.HK)将於下周四(25日)公布去年业绩及考虑是否派末期股息，受到新冠疫情在全球大流行影响，市场料集团去年信贷拨备出大增，本网综合7间券商预期渣打集团2020年法定表现除税前溢利介乎14.31亿美元至22.49亿美元，较2019年同期37.13亿美元，按年下跌39.4%至61.5%，中位数为19.53亿美元按年跌47.4%。
综合5间券商预期渣打2020年基本经营收入介乎147.75亿美元至150.64亿美元，较2020年基本收入152.71亿美元，按年下跌1.4%至3.2%，中位数148.84亿美元按年跌2.5%。投资者将关注渣打最新营运及派息指引，本网综合7间券商预期渣打2020年每股股息介乎0.07美元至0.18美元，中位数为0.15美元。
【料税前少赚四成 疫情下拨备大增】
花旗上月中发表报告表示，估计渣打去年法定表现除税前溢利按年跌47.4%至19.53亿美元，料信贷减值大增1.55倍至23.18亿美元、估计集团去年收入按年跌4%至148.15亿美元、净利息收入按年跌12.6%(料净息差为0.9%及成本收入比率69%)、料手续费收入跌13%、料其2020年每股盈利预测为17.9美仙、派2020年每股股息7.2美仙，估计去年股本回报率降至1.3%。
美银证券发表报告估计渣打去年法定表现除税前溢利按年跌61.5%至14.31亿美元，料信贷减值大增1.4倍至25.28亿美元，估计其去年净利息收入按年跌13%至66.7亿美元、料净手续费收入增4%至36.63亿美元、估计其去年普通股权一级资本为13.8%。该行认为渣打去年强劲资本状况及风险表现可给予管理层信心，重申予渣打「买入」评级，目标价由58.08元升至59.29元。
----------------------------------------
本网综合7间券商预期渣打集团2020年法定表现除税前溢利介乎14.31亿美元至22.49亿美元，较2019年同期37.13亿美元，按年下跌39.4%至61.5%，中位数为19.53亿美元按年跌47.4%。
券商│2020年法定表现除税前溢利预测│按年变幅
瑞信│22.49亿美元│-39.4%
麦格理│21.42亿美元│-42.3%
摩根士丹利│21.86亿美元│-41.1%
花旗│19.53亿美元│-47.4%
瑞银│19.34亿美元│-47.9%
摩根大通│18.84亿美元│-49.3%
美银证券│14.31亿美元│-61.5%
按渣打2019年法定除税前溢利37.13亿美元计算
--------------------------------------
综合5间券商预期渣打2020年基本经营收入介乎147.75亿美元至150.64亿美元，较2020年基本收入152.71亿美元，按年下跌1.4%至3.2%，中位数148.84亿美元按年跌2.5%。
券商│2020年基本表现经营收入预测│按年变幅
麦格理│150.64亿美元│-1.4%
摩根大通│149.35亿美元│-2.2%
摩根士丹利│148.84亿美元│-2.5%
瑞银│148.41亿美元│-2.8%
瑞信│147.75亿美元│-3.2%
按渣打2019年基本收入152.71亿美元计算
--------------------------------------
综合7间券商预期渣打2020年每股股息介乎0.07美元至0.18美元，中位数为0.15美元。
券商│2020年每股股息
摩根大通│0.17美元
美银证券│0.15美元
高盛│0.15美元
瑞信│0.15美元
麦格理│0.1美元
花旗│0.072美元
摩根士丹利│0.07美元
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
