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植耀輝: 快手(01024.HK)急升成全城熱話 心動(02400.HK)何以令投資者「心動」?
阿思達克 02-10 11:57
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,這陣子市場依然是新股熱,快手(01024.HK)表現之佳便成為全城茶餘飯後話題,就連一向不懂股票之母親,亦從身邊街坊「老友記」口中認識了此股,不過真正懂其業務之投資者恐怕是寥寥可數,散戶對此亦肯定興趣不大,反而只想知有何追、持、沽策略。純粹以坊間最普遍的看法,因會納入各大指數,在基金買盤吸納下,股價仍可能有較大機會上升;但眾所周知筆者一向「畏高」,而且雖說投資炒買需要憧憬,但現時快手也實在買不落手。內地一篇文章便提到,快手市值達到騰訊(00700.HK)六分之一,並超過小米(01810.HK)加網易(09999.HK)市值之總和,是否合理當然各有看法。不過以往內地投資者通常會給予這類新經濟股較高估值,但今次卻似乎相當理性。

另外,近期手遊股表現出色,但當中有一隻升幅特別驚人,就是心動公司(02400.HK),年初至今其股價累升超過1.15倍,市值達到458.2億元。不過其急升之最大原因,並非與其推出之遊戲有關,而是因為其持有之TapTap備受看好。

TapTap為心動公司旗下一個遊戲推薦平台,於2016年推出,現時App月活躍用戶人數約2,500萬,論數字其實不算多,不過按年增長超過五成,而且用戶被視為遊戲群組中真正之核心玩家;至於來自TapTap之收入貢獻其實亦不多,截至去年上半年收入僅佔心動公司整體收入約17.6%。

那TapTap有何可取之處?那便要從今年初華為宣佈下架騰訊所有遊戲產品一事說起。踏入2021年元旦日,華為與騰訊便因管道分成問題而發生衝突,華為下架了騰訊所有遊戲,其後又重新上架。有關分成問題亦要給大家一個基本概念。一款遊戲從開發到上市須經過多個不同環節,而各個環節則會再按比例分成。目前蘋果Apple Store的分成比例為30%,至於安卓Google Play亦為30%,但內地卻高達50%。事緣在2014年,華為等八家國產安卓手機廠商組成「硬核聯盟」,而就是硬核聯盟將安卓分成定在50%水平。

不過,越來越多遊戲廠商對如此高之分成比例感到不滿,有部分便開始不上架華為等傳統渠道,而選擇與TapTap合作。與傳統應用商店渠道不同,基本上遊戲廠商將遊戲上架TapTap不需要分成,皆因TapTap是以廣告變現作為經營模式,所以最重要是如何能吸引更多遊戲玩家。如TapTap能提供獨家遊戲代理,以此推動TapTap用戶增長以提升廣告收入。由於遊戲公司本身亦可減省成本,所以自然能吸引廠商進駐。去年青瓷網路《最強蝸牛》與椰島遊戲《江南百景圖》等遊戲便選擇與TapTap組成獨家合作,亦取得相當不俗成績。

當然,TapTap未來發展是否一帆風順仍言之尚早,始終現時對心動公司的整體貢獻仍十分有限,只是投資者似乎已投以信心一票,從其股價持續攀升及獲北水青睞便知曉。不過基於股價升幅實在驚人,所以現階段筆者亦只會將此股放在觀察名單之列,暫不作出推介。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有騰訊股份)

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恆指有望先行突破上日高位29,706點

耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(9日)美股三大指數盤中破頂但收市個別發展,道指先創出31,439點的紀錄新高但收市倒跌9點,納指反覆上落但續創紀錄新高兼收市新高,標指則跌0.1%;市場對經濟展望仍然樂觀,通脹率預期指標升至多年高點,美元和美國國債實際殖利率下降,投資者風險胃納上升看好股票前景。港股ADR升逾300點,意味恆指有望先行突破上日高位29,706點,並展現持續上升勢頭。國際指數服務商MSCI公布季度檢討結果,在MSCI中國指數加入14隻股份,其中被納入的香港上市企業中,權重最高的為農夫山泉(09633.HK),其他被納入的香港上市企業還有微盟(02013.HK)、永升生活服務(01995.HK)、九毛九(09922.HK)、明源雲(00909.HK)。

恆指近期站穩10天及20天線之上,2月8日高位29,706點將會為短期後市的首個阻力位,而只要恆指未有跌穿2月1日低位28,382點,指數於整固過後仍有望再向上試高位。

(筆者為證監會持牌人)~

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