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植耀辉: 快手(01024.HK)急升成全城热话 心动(02400.HK)何以令投资者「心动」?
阿思达克 02-10 11:57
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,这阵子市场依然是新股热,快手(01024.HK)表现之佳便成为全城茶余饭後话题,就连一向不懂股票之母亲,亦从身边街坊「老友记」口中认识了此股,不过真正懂其业务之投资者恐怕是寥寥可数,散户对此亦肯定兴趣不大,反而只想知有何追、持、沽策略。纯粹以坊间最普遍的看法,因会纳入各大指数,在基金买盘吸纳下,股价仍可能有较大机会上升;但众所周知笔者一向「畏高」,而且虽说投资炒买需要憧憬,但现时快手也实在买不落手。内地一篇文章便提到,快手市值达到腾讯(00700.HK)六分之一,并超过小米(01810.HK)加网易(09999.HK)市值之总和,是否合理当然各有看法。不过以往内地投资者通常会给予这类新经济股较高估值,但今次却似乎相当理性。

另外,近期手游股表现出色,但当中有一只升幅特别惊人,就是心动公司(02400.HK),年初至今其股价累升超过1.15倍,市值达到458.2亿元。不过其急升之最大原因,并非与其推出之游戏有关,而是因为其持有之TapTap备受看好。

TapTap为心动公司旗下一个游戏推荐平台,於2016年推出,现时App月活跃用户人数约2,500万,论数字其实不算多,不过按年增长超过五成,而且用户被视为游戏群组中真正之核心玩家;至於来自TapTap之收入贡献其实亦不多,截至去年上半年收入仅占心动公司整体收入约17.6%。

那TapTap有何可取之处?那便要从今年初华为宣布下架腾讯所有游戏产品一事说起。踏入2021年元旦日,华为与腾讯便因管道分成问题而发生冲突,华为下架了腾讯所有游戏,其後又重新上架。有关分成问题亦要给大家一个基本概念。一款游戏从开发到上市须经过多个不同环节,而各个环节则会再按比例分成。目前苹果Apple Store的分成比例为30%,至於安卓Google Play亦为30%,但内地却高达50%。事缘在2014年,华为等八家国产安卓手机厂商组成「硬核联盟」,而就是硬核联盟将安卓分成定在50%水平。

不过,越来越多游戏厂商对如此高之分成比例感到不满,有部分便开始不上架华为等传统渠道,而选择与TapTap合作。与传统应用商店渠道不同,基本上游戏厂商将游戏上架TapTap不需要分成,皆因TapTap是以广告变现作为经营模式,所以最重要是如何能吸引更多游戏玩家。如TapTap能提供独家游戏代理,以此推动TapTap用户增长以提升广告收入。由於游戏公司本身亦可减省成本,所以自然能吸引厂商进驻。去年青瓷网路《最强蜗牛》与椰岛游戏《江南百景图》等游戏便选择与TapTap组成独家合作,亦取得相当不俗成绩。

当然,TapTap未来发展是否一帆风顺仍言之尚早,始终现时对心动公司的整体贡献仍十分有限,只是投资者似乎已投以信心一票,从其股价持续攀升及获北水青睐便知晓。不过基於股价升幅实在惊人,所以现阶段笔者亦只会将此股放在观察名单之列,暂不作出推介。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,持有腾讯股份)

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恒指有望先行突破上日高位29,706点

耀才证券研究部团队称,隔晚(9日)美股三大指数盘中破顶但收市个别发展,道指先创出31,439点的纪录新高但收市倒跌9点,纳指反覆上落但续创纪录新高兼收市新高,标指则跌0.1%;市场对经济展望仍然乐观,通胀率预期指标升至多年高点,美元和美国国债实际殖利率下降,投资者风险胃纳上升看好股票前景。港股ADR升逾300点,意味恒指有望先行突破上日高位29,706点,并展现持续上升势头。国际指数服务商MSCI公布季度检讨结果,在MSCI中国指数加入14只股份,其中被纳入的香港上市企业中,权重最高的为农夫山泉(09633.HK),其他被纳入的香港上市企业还有微盟(02013.HK)、永升生活服务(01995.HK)、九毛九(09922.HK)、明源云(00909.HK)。

恒指近期站稳10天及20天线之上,2月8日高位29,706点将会为短期後市的首个阻力位,而只要恒指未有跌穿2月1日低位28,382点,指数於整固过後仍有望再向上试高位。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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