国泰君安首予快手(01024.HK)「增持」评级 采市销率计明年合理市值1.65万亿元
快手(01024.HK)今早(9日)股价抽升13.7%报344.6元,最新市值1.433万亿元。国泰君安发表报告表示,予快手「增持」评级(无给予目标价),在公司各业务分部采取市销估值法下,该行判断快手至2022年合理市值为1.65万亿元。
该行指,快手从GIF动图制作工具起家,先是上线短视频功能,後通过泛娱乐直播异军突起,2018年进军内地直播电商领域,目前核心业务均坐稳细分行业两大位置之一。无论是短视频、泛娱乐直播或者直播电商,均在巨头「环伺」中占有一席之地,平台化建设成绩斐然,未来商业化进程可期。
国泰君安指,快手8.0上线,标志着商业化正式起步。公司过往核心收入来源为直播付费,2017至2019年直播付费收入占比均在80%以上。公司於2020年9月正式上线单列内容展现形式的快手8.0版本,同时升级磁力引擎,意在增加广告加载率,打通公域和私域流量。公司2017年线上营销收入仅3.91亿人民币,2020首三季度增至133亿人民币,其中第三季实现广告收入61.81亿人民币,广告变现进度明显加快,未来线上营销或超越直播付费成为公司第一大收入来源。
此外,若根据单用户价值估值,可比公司该行选取哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)、Snapchat(SNAP.US)和Facebook(FB.US),以2021年2月4日美股收盘市值为基准,并以快手最新公布的MAU数据计算,三者平均的总市值/MAU为294美元,该行以此作为快手2021年「总市值/MAU」标准,并假设2022年该项指标增速为20%,得出2021年快手合理市值为1.43 万亿港元,2022年公司合理市值为2.05万亿港元。
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