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國泰君安首予快手(01024.HK)「增持」評級 採市銷率計明年合理市值1.65萬億元
阿思達克 02-09 11:51
快手(01024.HK)今早(9日)股價抽升13.7%報344.6元,最新市值1.433萬億元。國泰君安發表報告表示,予快手「增持」評級(無給予目標價),在公司各業務分部採取市銷估值法下,該行判斷快手至2022年合理市值為1.65萬億元。

該行指,快手從GIF動圖制作工具起家,先是上線短視頻功能,後通過泛娛樂直播異軍突起,2018年進軍內地直播電商領域,目前核心業務均坐穩細分行業兩大位置之一。無論是短視頻、泛娛樂直播或者直播電商,均在巨頭「環伺」中佔有一席之地,平台化建設成績斐然,未來商業化進程可期。

國泰君安指,快手8.0上線,標志著商業化正式起步。公司過往核心收入來源為直播付費,2017至2019年直播付費收入佔比均在80%以上。公司於2020年9月正式上線單列內容展現形式的快手8.0版本,同時升級磁力引擎,意在增加廣告加載率,打通公域和私域流量。公司2017年線上營銷收入僅3.91億人民幣,2020首三季度增至133億人民幣,其中第三季實現廣告收入61.81億人民幣,廣告變現進度明顯加快,未來線上營銷或超越直播付費成為公司第一大收入來源。

此外,若根據單用戶價值估值,可比公司該行選取嗶哩嗶哩(BILI.US)、Snapchat(SNAP.US)和Facebook(FB.US),以2021年2月4日美股收盤市值為基準,並以快手最新公布的MAU數據計算,三者平均的總市值/MAU為294美元,該行以此作為快手2021年「總市值/MAU」標準,並假設2022年該項指標增速為20%,得出2021年快手合理市值為1.43 萬億港元,2022年公司合理市值為2.05萬億港元。

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