《大行報告》野村下調中芯(00981.HK)目標價至16元 評級「減持」
野村發表的研究報告指,中芯國際(00981.HK)對2021年的指引令市場失望,但相信股價自上周五(5日)跌10%或是因為美國對批准供貨予華為仍存在不確定性,而公司亦宣布在今年底前進一步擴產,不過美國未向廠商發出批准前計劃未必可實現。雖然公司提供了今年上半年的銷售指引,惟下半年可見性較低,而公司假設在美國限制下經營持續,預期今年銷售增長將介乎中至高單位數,該行認為假如公司未獲美國批准獲得美國製材料,其經營可持續性將面對挑戰,維持對中芯「減持」評級,目標價由17元降至16元。
野村指出去年第四季中芯銷售按季跌7%,表現好過之前指引,主要受惠需求強勁,期內毛利率跌至18%,主要基於產品組合改變等,而今年首季銷售增長指引則為按季升7%至9%,毛利率指引介乎17%至19%亦好過市場預期,不過在14nm晶圓方面的投資或拖累公司今年毛利率約10個百分點,而今年的毛利率指引則介乎10%至20%,意味至2021年下半年將邁向介乎約10%至14%較低水平。
該行上調中芯今年每股盈測33%反映晶圓代工定價環境及使用率改善,但下調明年盈測74%反映折舊成本上升及在美國制裁風險下使用率潛在下降。該行稱,中芯估值相當於預測市帳率1.5至1.6倍,在本地半導體板塊中,偏好華虹半導體(01347.HK)多於中芯。
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