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《大行报告》瑞银料本港今年经济反弹4.8% 具多个增长引擎
阿思达克 02-05 13:01
瑞银发表研究报告,指与其他主要经济体不同,由於贸易战及社会事件,香港在疫情前已陷衰退。在大型刺激措施後香港仍有大额财政储备,情况亦与其他主要经济体不同。该行认为,香港在收缩两年後可以重拾正增长,即仗在疫情带来挑战下,香港经济开始有稳定迹象。该行料香港今年经济增长4.8%,高於市场预期的4.3%。

报告称,香港有多个增长引擎,在没有旅客入境下,香港零售销售开始有稳定迹象。旅客流动正常化将会成为周期上行催化剂。高失业率部分反映产出缺口出现,但财政支持可填补缺口。政府具强大财政实力,可支持家庭收入及增加再就业能力,亦可改善基建,开展更佳收入增长、更佳消费及更佳整体增长的良性周期。

同时,香港在国际贸易上仍有重要角色,专注於高增值贸易。这为香港短期受惠全球复苏及长期增长空间提供渠道。该行认为「连接」是香港未来增长的关键。大湾区开发将为未来多个增长动力提供实践的重要平台。

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