《大行報告》瑞銀下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至290元 評級「買入」
瑞銀發表研究報告指,隨著越來越多企業參與電商市場,加上行內監管收緊,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)正加大策略及新業務領域的投資以捕捉在直播及日用品方面的機遇,該行相信管理層決定正確,認為競爭比監管更大問題,而規模較細的競爭對手可自由投資,而阿里則更聚焦於盈利。
阿里是內地最大電商平台,所以瑞銀認為公司的投資可創造協同效應。2019財年公司經調整EBITA增長減慢至10%,但受惠新零售等,料2020-21財年增速將加快至約30%。
該行認為最重要是投資在內地偏遠城市以獲取客戶及增加客戶參與度,與拼多多競爭,不過另外兩個範疇亦值得留意,一方面是直播電商,現時相關範疇佔GMV逾10%並持續上升,快手、抖音及微信等亦正尋找機會趕上淘寶直播,而抖音亦叫停將客戶轉向淘寶。另一方面社區團購長遠將成主要的線上日用品購物模式,美團(03690.HK)及拼多多均大力投資在相關方面,阿里不能承擔讓出相關市場,因為高頻的日用品消費有助帶動其他品類的開支。
該行將阿里巴巴2022/23財年收入預測分別升1.8%及2.4%,以反映淘寶、新零售及菜鳥方面的高增長,但下調毛利率及經營利潤率的預測,並將經調整EBITA預測降10.4%及10.8%,將目標價由300元降至290元,評級「買入」。(el/w) ~
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