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植耀辉: 经济前景严峻美股急挫 港股今考验二万九关
阿思达克 02-01 10:41
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,美股上周五(1月29日)再度大幅波动,道指大跌620点或2%,标普500指数及纳指则分别下跌1.93%及2%。全月计,道指及标普500指数则分别累跌1.7%及1.1%,纳指则总算维持升势,累升1.7%。但对後市看法则不少投资者倾向审慎,美银美林便担心美股或会出现10%回调。事实上,近期发生之GME事件增添市场之不确定性,加上企业季绩普遍未有太大惊喜,恐怕市况仍会相当波动。

港股上周虽然一度突破30,000点关口,但未能企稳之余,大市更是连跌四个交易日,由30,191点高位计,累积跌幅超过1,876点。而港股上周最终亦累跌1,164点或3.95%,收报28,283点。虽然一周计表现欠佳,但一月份港股仍能累升3.8%。

至於短期港股表现,严格上走势仍不明朗,投资者亦要留意两大变数。其一是外围股市去向,特别是近期相当波动之美股。美股近期受多个因素影响,当中疫情依然严峻以至对经济前景之担忧,加上企业盈利表现,皆会对美股有举足轻重影响,当然近期GME事件亦须关注往後之显化情况。

另一要素则关於北水动向。近日受春节假期因素影响,内地银根有所紧张,同时北水净流入情况亦似有所减少,部分港股通热门股份如吉利(00175.HK)亦出现净流出情况。由於港股本轮升势亦有赖北水流入,故如流入速度有所减缓,亦可能会对港股有一定影响。故现时宜先观察港股短期能否守稳27,800至28,000点水平。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~

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