《大行报告》大和料友邦(01299.HK)上季内地新业务价值跌20至30% 估企业价值及派息仍稳定
大和发表研究报告,预期友邦(01299.HK)2020年内涵价值将按年增长5%,其中去年下半年将较去年上半年增长9%,料去年全年新业务价值(VNB)降低34%,每股派息增加5%。
该行估计,友邦去年第四季VNB表现较疲软,将在今年首季入帐中反映,预期上季度内地业务VNB按年跌20%至30%,主要由於重大疾新病定义将於2021年2月1日生效,因此往年通常在1月进行的年度产品升级,今年将延至2月份;以及部分经纪刻意将订单留到下季,估计上季的VNB利润率将按年下降4个百分点。
但大和指出,留意到友邦去年下半年新经纪增聘人数增幅达双位数,对2021年及以後的VNB来说是个好兆头。香港业务方面,该行预测上季VNB将按年跌40%至50%,指出自9月下旬开关後,大陆游客对澳门友邦保险贡献很小,考虑到目前疫情持续,未感乐观。
大和重申对友邦的「买入」评级,维持目标价125元,将2020年VNB预测下调至跌34%,预计2021年回升16%,同时将2020至2022年的税後营运溢利及净利润预测下调2%至7%。
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