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《大行報告》大和料友邦(01299.HK)上季內地新業務價值跌20至30% 估企業價值及派息仍穩定
阿思達克 01-28 14:25
大和發表研究報告,預期友邦(01299.HK)2020年內涵價值將按年增長5%,其中去年下半年將較去年上半年增長9%,料去年全年新業務價值(VNB)降低34%,每股派息增加5%。

該行估計,友邦去年第四季VNB表現較疲軟,將在今年首季入帳中反映,預期上季度內地業務VNB按年跌20%至30%,主要由於重大疾新病定義將於2021年2月1日生效,因此往年通常在1月進行的年度產品升級,今年將延至2月份;以及部分經紀刻意將訂單留到下季,估計上季的VNB利潤率將按年下降4個百分點。

但大和指出,留意到友邦去年下半年新經紀增聘人數增幅達雙位數,對2021年及以後的VNB來說是個好兆頭。香港業務方面,該行預測上季VNB將按年跌40%至50%,指出自9月下旬開關後,大陸游客對澳門友邦保險貢獻很小,考慮到目前疫情持續,未感樂觀。

大和重申對友邦的「買入」評級,維持目標價125元,將2020年VNB預測下調至跌34%,預計2021年回升16%,同時將2020至2022年的稅後營運溢利及淨利潤預測下調2%至7%。

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