盈選報告 | 今年鋰價有望破10萬，本輪上漲或可維持2年
研報看點
鋰價從底部 3.8 萬/噸，上漲到目前的 6.8 萬/噸，基於本輪供需、庫存的分析，國泰君安認爲本輪鋰價上漲的高度、節奏、持續性都將超預期，2021 年鋰價高點有望破 10 萬/噸。維持鋰行業增持評級。
編選自國泰君安研究報告《爆發的需求，奔走的鋰價》，作者鄔華宇、湯龑、朱敏，發佈於2021年1月27日。
鋰電需求爆發
鋰電需求大超預期。電動車爆發，中下遊電動車供應鏈不斷上修 2021年的生產計劃，大幅拉動鋰行業需求。同時，鋰電池應用場景的拓展，從 xEV 到儲能、兩輪車以及電動工具，鋰電池需求多點開花。SMM 公佈的 2020 年四大正極材料月度產量來看，三元正極材料月度產量同比提升 157%，磷酸鐵鋰月度產量同比增長 223%，錳酸鋰月度產量同比增長 110%，鈷酸鋰月度產量同比增長 35%，受益於鋰電的爆發，鋰鹽行業需求大超預期。
供給端增量有限
2021 年供給增量不大，鋰精礦成爲最大短板。鋰行業的供給集中度極高，85%的資源供給來自於南美鹽湖（4 個）和海外鋰礦（5 個）。2021 年唯一的增量的來自於這些鹽湖和礦山產能利用率的提升，而沒有任何新增產能的投產，2022 年海外南美鹽湖將有部分新增產能的釋放，但這波投產我們認爲會被需求的增長完全消化掉。目前海外在產的鋰礦合計產能 32 萬噸 LCE，包括澳洲的 Greenbushes、Marion、GXY、PLS，巴西的 AMG），而撇除 Greenbushes 的 18 萬噸 LCE 產能對應天齊和雅保的冶煉廠供應，剩餘 4 個鋰礦產能僅爲 14 萬噸 LCE，完全不能覆蓋剩餘中國鋰鹽冶煉廠的 25-30 萬噸 LCE 的鋰礦需求。
鋰價上漲仍可持續
預計本輪鋰價上漲的時間維度在 2 年以上。鋰資源的資本支出的強度和節奏很可能跟不上鋰電中下遊的資本開支節奏。近期 LG 新能源宣佈 98 億美元規劃投資，寧德時代 390 億的動力電池建廠規劃，而上遊鋰資源暫時還沒有開始新一輪的大規模的資本開支。澳洲礦業目前對於中資的跨國投資環境不友好，這一輪澳礦的新增產能的投產可能會低於預期，此外海外鹽湖產能週期 3-5 年，新一輪的投資無法滿足近 1-2 年的鋰電需求。
推薦增持的港股標的：贛鋒鋰業
風險提示：鋰電需求低於預期。
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