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《大行報告》瑞銀:本月累計南向淨流入達2,500億港元 列北水十大持倉/加倉股
阿思達克 01-27 16:15
瑞銀發表報告,指受惠增長復甦預期、內地在岸互惠基金熱銷,及美國總統拜登上任後中美關係緩和憧憬,A股及本港上市中資股自去年底整固後,本年至今顯著上升。內地本土新冠確診反彈及出行限制或推遲政策正常化,該行相信市場預期人行將透過不同工具保障春節前市場有足夠流動性。

報告稱,上周人行透過逆回購向市場淨注入5,980億元人民幣。中央經濟工作會議要求政策不會「急轉彎」。不過,該行所接觸的投資者,仍憂慮人行在春節後將收緊政策,或損害一些沒穩固基本面而估值昂貴的股票。

報告續稱,內地在岸互惠基金熱銷,本月至今累計吸資3,820億元人民幣,打破去年7月所創3,250億元人民幣舊紀錄。在2015至2020年間平均每年基金發行亦僅5,660億元人民幣。A股交易額增加及股票融資餘額上升反映投資者風險胃納增加。由於A股龍頭股估值已被推高,南向資金轉眼精選港股。

報告稱,在今年1月18日,南向資金流入達266億港元創單日新高。本年/本月累計南向淨流入達2,500億港元,去年全年僅6,720億港元,另2015至2019年平均亦僅2,090億港元。

瑞銀補充,市場現憧憬在低基數下,今年首季內地GDP錄強勁按年增長;這或導致非金融企業盈利廣泛復甦,去年末季及今年首季每股盈利迎來驚喜,或再推高特定港股。

報告稱,預期南向資金將偏好具品牌、平台及創新能力的領先私企。在最近升浪中,個別個股窩輪活動增加,或導致股票顯著回調。一般而言,90後新生代投資者偏好日常生活可以接受的上市公司。在在岸仿替品而言,該行持續呼籲緊貼具持續增長及在品牌、平台及創新能力上優勢的行業領袖;市場對這類股份願意付出溢價。

瑞銀建議投資者增加對順周期性股份持倉,以受惠經濟上行周期,偏好材料(有色金屬、化工)、工業(機械、太陽能、新能源車供應鏈、自動化)及非必需消費品(家電、汽車及體育服飾)。該行列出南向投資者港股十大持倉、資金流入/流出統計,見另表。

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