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《大行報告》中金升美團(03690.HK)目標價至426元 看好美團優選在履約模式上創新
阿思達克 01-27 14:14
中金發表報告,預計美團(03690.HK)去年第四季業績繼續受益於疫情後的持續復甦,預料收入按年增長31%至368.5億元人民幣,接近市場一致預期370億元人民幣。其外賣與到店業務繼續保持強健的發展步調,美團優選經過一整個季度的戰略投入,規模穩步提升,該行估計受美團優選及其他創新業務的持續投入影響,第四季公司經調整淨利潤或將按年轉虧,至淨虧損18億元人民幣,低於市場一致預期的11億元人民幣。

該行又料美團去年第四季外賣及到店等核心業務保持穩健增長,預計第四季外賣日均單量按年增長32%至3,595萬單,單價按年增長4%至46.5元人民幣,貨幣化率保持相對穩定,外賣收入按年上升35%至213億元人民幣。因第四季氣溫較低,騎手補貼受季節性因素影響,預計單均經營利潤按年持平在0.19元人民幣,外賣經營利潤按年增長32%至6.4億元人民幣。

另外,中金預計美團酒旅及到店業務受益於疫情後持續復甦,收入將按年增長11%至71億元人民幣,預計其經營利潤率按年基本持平。而美團優選仍處在戰略投入早期,預計短期內收入貢獻有限,虧損規模擴大。中金估算第四季美團優選GMV達到50億元人民幣左右,但由於會計處理因素,預計收入很少,總體經營虧損在30億元人民幣左右。

中金維持美團「跑贏行業」評級,將目標價上調29%至426元,對應明年經調整市盈率153倍。該行又維持美團去年收入預測不變,上調今年收入預測11.2%,同時下調去年經調整淨利潤52.4%,及下調今年經調整淨利潤至淨虧損14億元人民幣,以反映新業務的持續戰略投入,同時該行首次引入明年經調整淨利潤為135.6億元人民幣。

中金看好美團優選在履約模式上的創新,看好美團公司在社區電商賽道的長期競爭力。而優選業務的快速推進,宣告公司正從本地生活領域系統性邁向實物電商領域,有望幫助公司進一步打開估值空間。

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