新特能源(01799.HK):硅料價格強勢,大單紛至沓來,維持“買入” 評級,目標價43.88港元
機構:中信證券
評級:買入
目標價:43.88港元
公司再籤 7 萬噸硅料大單,目前長單規模已超現有產能,需求飽滿;同時產能成本、品質持續優化, 有望實現盈利大幅修復。 維持 2020-2022 年淨利潤預測6.1/18.4/18.9 億元, 現價對應 PE 為 41/13/13 倍, 調升目標價至 43.88 港元,維持“買入”評級。
▍ 再籤 7 萬噸硅料大單, 長單規模已超現有產能。 1 月 21 日, 公司公吿與上機數控及其子公司弘元新材料簽訂硅料長單,將於未來 5 年向後者銷售合計 70350多晶硅,具體採購規模和價格按月協定。按照當前 86 元/kg 的硅料均價計算,合計訂單金額達 60.5 億元。 公司 2020 年以來已相繼和隆基、晶澳、上機數控均簽訂硅料長單, 2021~2025 年訂單總規模達 47.76 萬噸,已佔目前總產能109%,產能獲得優質客户高比例鎖定,後續有望通過技改提升或新建項目進一步擴產。
▍ 硅料新產能已爬滿,產品成本品質領先。 公司現有多晶硅年產能 8 萬噸, 憑藉深厚的技術儲備和自備電廠等優勢,產品品質和成本處於行業第一梯隊。 公司3.6 萬噸新產能於 2020H2 已完成爬坡, 產品競爭優勢進一步強化,我們預計2021 年起公司硅料產能將滿負荷運行, 單晶料佔比或升至 90%以上, 平均生產成本望降至 45 元/kg 以下。
▍ 硅料價格表現強勢,公司盈利有望大幅修復。 受國內一季度搶裝行情和春節前備貨需求拉動,近期硅料價格表現強勢,據 PVInfoLink 統計,目前單晶緻密料價格已逐步回升至 86 元/kg 以上,部分成交價提至 90 元/kg。我們判斷春節後硅料價格或將有小幅鬆動,但在 2021 年光伏裝機需求旺盛,硅料供需格局持續趨緊的情況下,預計後續價格仍將進一步走高,全年均價有望維持約 90 元/kg,公司硅料業務盈利能力有望大幅修復。
▍ 風險因素: 光伏增長不及預期;硅料產能釋放不及預期;硅料價格大幅下降。
▍ 投資建議: 公司硅料產能成本、品質持續優化, 有望實現盈利大幅修復; 維持2020-2022 年淨利潤預測分別為 6.1/18.4/18.9 億元,對應 EPS 預測為0.50/1.54/1.57 元(摺合 0.60/1.83/1.87 港元) , 現價對應 PE 41/13/13 倍。考慮硅料持續漲價確定性漸強以及公司二級市場流動性進一步釋放, 調升目標價至 43.88 港元(對應 2021 年 24 倍 PE) , 維持“買入” 評級。

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