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港股生物醫藥板塊集體撲街,接下來怎麼看?
格隆匯 01-26 13:57

今日,港股醫藥板塊普遍下跌,其中中國再生醫學暴跌10%,CRO龍頭康龍化成曾一度跌超12%,春立醫療、正大企業國際、普華和順跌逾7%,就連泰格醫藥、藥明康德、信達生物等醫藥大牛股也大跌5%左右。

(來源:choice)

對於今日港股生物醫藥板塊集體撲街的原因,一方面隨着大盤情緒回落;另一方面,由於醫藥板塊分化明顯,前期醫藥龍頭漲幅較大,一旦資金回撤可能會帶動整體醫藥板塊集體下挫。

今年以來,港股走勢強勢,恆生指數整體漲超8%,除了創業板指外,跑贏A股滬指5個點和深成指2個點,更是遠超美股主要指數漲幅。就在昨日,恆生指數再度站上3萬港元關口,市場情緒可謂火熱。

(來源:Wind)

與此同時,南下資金1月以來大幅流入,累計淨流入達2504.66億港元。南下資金瘋狂搶籌,生物醫藥亦是港股的核心優質板塊之一。京東健康、百濟神州、藥明生物等優質醫療醫藥公司在港上市,是基金經理搶籌配置標的。

(來源:Wind)

但是,大盤指數強勢的背後,行業內分化愈發明顯。

醫藥板塊來説,12月集採及醫保目錄調整等利空出盡之後,短期驅動力主要是部分公司年報業績預吿高增長帶動了板塊行情,尤其是CRO、CDMO因其板塊均業績高增長,由此呈現出結構化行情。此外,近期部分省份疫情呈散點式爆發,醫藥板塊關注度有所提升,醫學檢測服務、防疫防護等與個人及企業防疫需求相關的板塊漲幅居前。

以康龍化成為例,去年1月以來,其股價漲超264.17%,最近一次明顯主升浪在11月末開始,不到2個月的時間,公司股價就已漲近70%。過去短短15個交易日,康龍化成股價漲幅高達35.88%,今日大跌之後,其月內漲幅也有20%左右。

(來源:Wind)

微創醫療亦是如此,一年之內其股價漲幅高達5.5倍;從去年11月以來,微創醫療漲幅也有1.2倍;年初以來,包括今日大跌之後,公司股價也有超43%的上漲

(來源:Wind)

先健科技亦於近期創下歷史新高,年初至今,漲逾23%左右。

(來源:Wind)

經過前期上漲之後,醫藥龍頭絕對估值、估值溢價率均有所提升,目前仍處於歷史十年的中高位水平。因此,當市場情緒回落時,抱團資金會出現鬆動,容易造成高位股踩踏局面。

那麼,醫藥股還有繼續增長的可能嗎?

3月後,隨着醫藥企業陸續披露一季報,板塊將進入一季報行情。從業績趨勢來看,去年一季度,醫藥板塊大多數公司業績受到影響基數較低,預計醫藥一季報業績也將表現較好。

興業證券認為,隨着醫藥行業在政策上進行供給側改革,增量鼓勵創新後,龍頭公司更快調整自身發展策略,迎來更高質量發展,未來龍頭增速更快這一趨勢有望延續。另外,中國進入權益大時代,機構資金逐步成為主導資金,在機構增量資金不斷湧入的情況下,龍頭也將是持續的選擇。

上海證券表示,隨着醫藥板塊估值和估值溢價率的逐步迴歸,以及不確定因素的消除,板塊長期佈局的時點已經到來,中長期依然以創新及創新產業鏈、疫苗、醫療器械平台型公司等增長確定性高的板塊中龍頭個股為投資主線。

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