思摩爾國際(06969.HK)2020財年業績預吿點評：Q4超預期，成長邏輯持續兑現中，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
公司 2020Q4 業績環比+20%~+29%，超出市場預期。近期悦刻 IPO 期間，公 司業績預期及估值顯著提升。公司產業鏈定價能力顯著，目前經營穩中向好，未來大客户率先通過 PMTA、國內 HNB 市場破冰、霧化場景延伸等都有望成為股價向上催化劑。
▍全年業績超預期，Q4 業績亮眼。公司公吿全年盈利預吿，2020 年調整後淨利潤達 38.6-39.7 億元，同比+70%~+75%，其中 Q4 調整後淨利潤達 13.9-15.0 億元，同比+199%~+223%，環比+20%~+29%，超出市場預期。我們推算 Q4 收入達約 32 億元以上，同比/環比約+89%/+10%，調整後淨利率近 45%，公司高成長及盈利能力提升邏輯持續兑現。
▍新型煙草行業大勢再度確認。2020 年是全球新型煙草行業大考之年，國內市場2019 年末停止線上渠道銷售，行業供給端劇烈洗牌；美國市場 2020 年初停止口味煙銷售，行業需求遭受嚴重打擊；新冠疫情席捲全球，國內線下擴張受阻，海外零售端受不同程度影響。但新型煙草行業展現出了十足韌勁，中美市場全年均實現正增長，頭部品牌悦刻、VUSE（Vype）等逆勢而上，收入同比均超 100%，公司作為全球代工龍頭業績同比增長超 70%，大超年初市場預期。新型煙草有望成為人類攝入尼古丁主流方式進一步被市場驗證。
▍2021 展望樂觀，盈利能力延續上行。料封閉式小煙仍將貢獻主要增速：國內市場隨頭部品牌渠道擴張重回高成長，新開店&同店增長帶動下悦刻等頭部品牌收入有望提速；美國市場 PMTA 逐步落地後監管步入邊際寬鬆週期，公司大客户有望率先通過 PMTA 搶佔市場先機。公司 APV、HNB 及 CBD&THC 業務有望隨疫情得到控制持續修復。隨陶瓷霧化芯收入佔比進一步提升、自動化帶來的效率提升及規模效應，公司盈利能力仍具上行空間。
▍重申競爭壁壘顯著，中長期成長路徑日漸清晰。重申公司技術創新及品牌&嚴監管下優質客户綁定&領先的規模優勢塑造的較高競爭壁壘，以及類煙草產業鏈核心供應商屬性。短期公司對核心客户供應份額有望穩步提升，充分享受新型煙草行業成長紅利；中長期霧化應用場景有望持續擴張，由霧化尼古丁&大麻到霧化咖啡因、保健品、藥品，業績與估值均存在提升空間。
▍風險因素：顛覆性霧化技術路徑的替代；行業監管程度超預期；新型煙草產品處在提税通道。
▍投資建議：公司 2021 業績超出我們此前預期，展望 2021 經營樂觀，考慮到封閉式小煙大客户預計仍將實現較快成長，公司供應份額料穩中有升，我們上調2020-22 年調整後淨利潤預測至 39.0 億/53.9 億/73.0 億元（原預測：36.2 億 /51.8 億/70.1 億元），對應 EPS 預測 0.68/0.94/1.27 元，維持“買入”評級。
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