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阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)季報前瞻:變革陣痛期,估值怎麼看?
格隆匯 01-22 15:00

機構:國信證券

評級:買入

事項:

阿里巴巴即將發佈 FY2021Q3 財報,考慮高鑫零售並表因素,我們預計公司 FY2021Q3 整體收入同比+35.7%至 2192億元;Non-GAAP 淨利潤為 612 億元,淨利潤率為 27.9%,同比+32%,經營依舊穩健。儘管短期面臨反壟斷監管、競爭環境惡化以及流量見頂的壓力,但是中長期我們認為公司核心電商在優勢品類方面依舊優勢穩固,變現效率高於同行,我們看好阿里在核心電商的強韌性以及阿里雲業務的高速發展,給予其 2022 年對應的估值區間為 308-335 港幣,相對於相對於當前的漲幅空間為 19%-30%,維持“買入”評級。

評論:

季報前瞻:料 FY2021Q3 核心電商經營穩健,雲計算增長亮眼

阿里巴巴即將發佈 FY2021Q3 財報,考慮到阿里發力內容電商,All in 信息流生態,同時疊加“雙十一”活動時間拉長,我們預計第四季度廣吿變現效率將有效提升,從而帶來廣吿收入和貨幣化率的提升。我們預計 FY2021Q3 整體收入同比+35.7%至 2192 億元,Non-GAAP 淨利潤為 612 億元,淨利潤率為 27.9%,同比+32%,或略超市場預期。

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