特步國際(01368.HK)2020年四季度經營數據點評：主品牌持續改善，新品牌仍具看點，維持“買入”評級
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
公司2020Q4實現終端流水高單位數增長，2020年呈現逐季度改善的趨勢。同時，存貨水平繼續改善，多品牌整合持續推進。2020年疫情背景下主品牌略有調整，綜合考慮收購品牌海外業務略有虧損&代理品牌仍需一定投入，下調2020年EPS預測至0.22港元（原預測為0.24港元），但考慮到公司終端恢復較好，上調2021/2022年EPS預測至0.33/0.40港元（原預測為0.30港元/0.36港元），維持“買入”評級。
經營回顧：終端持續改善，庫存接近健康狀態。公司2020Q4實現終端流水高單位數增長，2020年呈現逐季度改善的趨勢（2020Q1/Q2/Q3分別為下降20%~25%/下降低單位數/中單位數增長）。同時，存貨水平繼續改善，接近健康狀態（截止到2020Q4存貨週轉週期5個月左右）。持續改善的表現驗證公司在產品/渠道/供應鏈等方面的改革成果。
產品不斷升級，全面擁抱新零售。（1）產品方面，2020年公司繼續修煉內功，產品功能性&時尚性研發設計不斷提升，在競速160X的基礎上，騛速系列跑鞋升級上線，全面覆蓋從專業跑者到大眾跑者需求，林書豪系列籃球鞋XTEPJLINONE正式推出，同時加大跨界聯名的嘗試，特步x少林積極擁抱Z世代。（2）零售方面，公司及時啟動全員零售模式，推動私域流量加快社羣推廣，線上方面加速“特步運動+”線上小程序建設。
多品牌整合繼續推進，線下門店逐步落地。公司正式推出“多品牌全球化戰略”，2020Q4內推出索康尼在中國首家線下門店、首家多品牌集合店X-STREET（單日銷售創下516萬元）。預計2021年多品牌戰略有望加速推進，更多的索康尼、邁樂等品牌門店有望實現落地，同時疫情影響下的品牌虧損有望收窄。
風險提示。1.終端零售波動；2.同店表現低於預期；3.疫情持續時間超預期。
盈利預測及估值。2020年疫情背景下主品牌略有調整，綜合考慮收購品牌海外業務略有虧損，代理品牌仍需一定投入，下調2020年EPS預測至0.22港元（原預測為0.24港元），但考慮到公司終端恢復較好，上調2021/2022年EPS預測至0.33/0.40港元（原預測為0.30港元/0.36港元），維持“買入”評級。
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