耐世特(01316.HK):恢復與成長帶來業績與估值向上雙擊,維持“買入”評級,目標價16.22港元
機構:興業證券
評級:買入
目標價:16.22港元
投資要點
美國汽車行業恢復好於預期,公司下半年業績有望實現同比增長。2020下半年美國汽車產量同比增長1.9%,環比增長52.5%;其中LightTrucks產量同比增長5.23%,環比增長57.0%,衞生事件影響下行業整體生產恢復好於預期。2020下半年通用、福特、FCA三巨頭LightTrucks產量同比增長3.74%,其中通用汽車同比增長31.06%,福特汽車同比減少3.45%,FCA銷量同比減少8.67%。我們認為,得益於主要市場美國的良好恢復、核心客户通用汽車產量的大幅增長,疊加中國市場的優異表現以及歐洲市場新項目投產等因素,公司2020年下半年業績有望實現同比增長,環比大幅改善。
受益電動智能化轉型,公司EPS、半軸、管柱等產品單車價值有望提升。通用汽車計劃在2025年之前投資270億美元並推出30款電動車,在2023年之前推出22款搭載SuperCruise超級智能駕駛系統車型。在電動智能化轉型過程中,耐世特可實現L2-L5ADAS功能的高可用性EPS滲透率有望提升、新產品可伸縮式管住有望得到應用、電動車自重增加對於半軸減噪耐用性要求更高,產品附加值提升明顯。我們認為,伴隨核心客户未來電動智能化轉型,耐世特產品單車價值量有望提升、新產品儲備有望逐步得到量產。
高輸出EPS有望逐步在商用車電動化轉型中實現量產。傳統EPS由於負載不足難以應用於商用車,耐世特研發的高輸出EPS可用於輕型及中重型商用車、能夠助力商用車節省油耗並獲得多項輔助駕駛功能。目前,耐世特已經將高輸出EPS成功應用於三輛電動車輛上,包括一輛全尺寸電動皮卡、一輛電動輕型商用車以及一輛電動L4自動駕駛載人穿梭巴士。我們認為,伴隨特斯拉、通用等企業陸續推出面向商用電動車的業務,商用車尤其是輕卡電動化進程正在加速,耐世特高輸出EPS有望逐步實現量產並貢獻業績增量。
我們的觀點:公司專注汽車轉向系統逾百年,擁有極強的研發與創新能力、深厚的經驗與技術積累,核心產品符合汽車行業大趨勢,自動駕駛技術儲備充足、行業領先,有望持續享受汽車行業轉型變革紅利。伴隨全球汽車行業迎來恢復性增長,公司核心客户表現回暖、新客户項目持續投產。考慮到公司美國市場及客户恢復好於預期以及耐世特未來在電動智能領域的成長性,我們將2020-2022年公司利潤預測分別調高24.3%、25.5%和15.5%至1.08億美元、2.07億美元和2.55億美元。目標價從11.89港元提升至16.22港元,相當於25倍2021年PE,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示:汽車行業恢復不及預期;貿易摩擦升級;新工廠爬坡不及預期
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