澳優(01717.HK)：羊奶粉庫存調整接近尾聲，基本面最低點即將過去，維持公司“買入”評級
機構：華金證券
評級：買入
投資要點
牛奶粉1897保持高速增長，羊奶粉增速放緩。公司2020年前三季度收入實現穩定增長,利潤端單三季度受一次性費用計提等因素影響，增速放緩。具體分產品看，Q1-3自家牛奶粉/自家羊奶粉/私人品牌及其他/營養品分別實現營業收入26.40/23.50/6.62/1.06億元，同比增長24.8%/17.8%/33.7%/29.4%。三季度自家牛奶粉業務保持高增速，主要貢獻來自於海普諾凱生物（含海普諾凱1897、悠藍等），其Q1-3實現收入18.27億元，同比增長67.1%。自家羊奶粉業務增速放緩，基本與去年同期持平，主要原因系受上半年竄貨影響，Q2經銷商庫存較大，公司為良性長遠發展，採取主動控貨手段持續去庫存，導致前三季度收入增速放緩。
根據調研反饋，牛奶粉方面，預計四季度依舊保持較高增速。展望21年,有望保持高雙位數增長：21年將主要聚焦建立高效敏捷的管理體系，從銷售渠道推動逐步向品牌附能轉化，繼續進行超高端產品推廣，擴大線上市場推廣，新品聚焦四五線市場的開拓。羊奶粉方面，截止12月底終端內碼產品佔比穩步提升，終端動銷環比恢復，渠道庫存已恢復到2個月以內合理水平，同時公司對經銷商進行合理更迭。預計四季度羊奶粉能夠實現環比正增長，由於19年四季度基數較高，同比力爭持平。
受羊奶粉去庫存促銷及羊奶油虧損影響，毛利率略有下滑。公司2020Q1-3毛利率51.03%，同比-1.43pcts。Q3毛利率48.18%，同比-4.88pcts。毛利率下降主要受兩方面影響：1）羊奶粉去庫存促銷及業務單元重組等一次性計提費用3620萬元；2）生產羊乳清蛋白其伴生產品羊乳油和酪蛋白等產品虧損。產品端預計Q3羊奶粉毛利率下滑1%，牛奶粉毛利率上升0.6%，撇除短期因素擾動，公司整體毛利率保持穩定，伴隨自家高端品牌收入佔比的持續提升和羊奶粉收入增速恢復，公司未來綜合毛利率有望提升。
羊奶粉庫存調整接近尾聲，基本面最低點即將過去。2020年上半年公司為實現長期良性發展，主動調整羊奶粉庫存，伴隨庫存基本調整到位，公司競爭力會持續釋放，預計20年全年營業收入20%以上增速能夠實現。展望21年，在國產奶粉市場佔比持續提升背景下，公司作為國內羊奶粉第一品牌，堅持在細分和差異化中找到自己的發展道路，海普諾凱1897的加速成長帶來結構升級，以及羊奶粉佳貝艾特恢復增長有望進一步兑現公司業績，公司長期雙輪驅動增長趨勢不變。
投資建議：根據羊奶粉收入增速情況，我們略調整盈利預測，預計公司2020-2022年分別實現收入81.8/100.6/118.7億元，同比增長21.3%/23.0%/18.0%。歸母淨利潤11.23/14.63/17.41億元，同比增長27.8%/30.3%/19.0%。對應EPS分別為0.65/0.85/1.01元。2020-2022年市盈率16.4/12.6/10.6倍，給予公司21年PE20X估值，維持公司“買入-A”評級。
風險提示：食品安全問題；下游需求下滑；行業競爭加劇；新業務推廣不及預期；貿易摩擦和匯率問題、政策風險。
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