耐世特(01316.HK)：恢复与成长带来业绩与估值向上双击，维持“买入”评级，目标价16.22港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：16.22港元
投资要点
美国汽车行业恢复好于预期，公司下半年业绩有望实现同比增长。2020下半年美国汽车产量同比增长1.9%，环比增长52.5%；其中LightTrucks产量同比增长5.23%，环比增长57.0%，卫生事件影响下行业整体生产恢复好于预期。2020下半年通用、福特、FCA三巨头LightTrucks产量同比增长3.74%，其中通用汽车同比增长31.06%，福特汽车同比减少3.45%，FCA销量同比减少8.67%。我们认为，得益于主要市场美国的良好恢复、核心客户通用汽车产量的大幅增长，叠加中国市场的优异表现以及欧洲市场新项目投产等因素，公司2020年下半年业绩有望实现同比增长，环比大幅改善。
受益电动智能化转型，公司EPS、半轴、管柱等产品单车价值有望提升。通用汽车计划在2025年之前投资270亿美元并推出30款电动车，在2023年之前推出22款搭载SuperCruise超级智能驾驶系统车型。在电动智能化转型过程中，耐世特可实现L2-L5ADAS功能的高可用性EPS渗透率有望提升、新产品可伸缩式管住有望得到应用、电动车自重增加对于半轴减噪耐用性要求更高，产品附加值提升明显。我们认为，伴随核心客户未来电动智能化转型，耐世特产品单车价值量有望提升、新产品储备有望逐步得到量产。
高输出EPS有望逐步在商用车电动化转型中实现量产。传统EPS由于负载不足难以应用于商用车，耐世特研发的高输出EPS可用于轻型及中重型商用车、能够助力商用车节省油耗并获得多项辅助驾驶功能。目前，耐世特已经将高输出EPS成功应用于三辆电动车辆上，包括一辆全尺寸电动皮卡、一辆电动轻型商用车以及一辆电动L4自动驾驶载人穿梭巴士。我们认为，伴随特斯拉、通用等企业陆续推出面向商用电动车的业务，商用车尤其是轻卡电动化进程正在加速，耐世特高输出EPS有望逐步实现量产并贡献业绩增量。
我们的观点：公司专注汽车转向系统逾百年，拥有极强的研发与创新能力、深厚的经验与技术积累，核心产品符合汽车行业大趋势，自动驾驶技术储备充足、行业领先，有望持续享受汽车行业转型变革红利。伴随全球汽车行业迎来恢复性增长，公司核心客户表现回暖、新客户项目持续投产。考虑到公司美国市场及客户恢复好于预期以及耐世特未来在电动智能领域的成长性，我们将2020-2022年公司利润预测分别调高24.3%、25.5%和15.5%至1.08亿美元、2.07亿美元和2.55亿美元。目标价从11.89港元提升至16.22港元，相当于25倍2021年PE，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：汽车行业恢复不及预期；贸易摩擦升级；新工厂爬坡不及预期
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