天工國際(00826.HK)：國資戰投彰顯信心，高端工模具鋼國產替代進行時
機構：東吳證券
國家產業資本參與戰略投資彰顯信心，核心業務未來或將在 A 股上市。公司於12 月 28 日發佈公吿，公司引入戰略投資者，具備國資和地方政府背景的 13 名投資者合計出資 14.15 億元認購公司全資（認購前）附屬天工工具 16.65%股權，公司員工持股平台丹陽天一將以 8500 萬元代價認購天工工具 1%股權。13 名戰略投資者包括國家制造業轉型升級基金主導的金石新材料基金等國資產業資本以及鎮江、青島等多個地方國資委相關資本，充分顯示對天工工具行業地位的認可和對其發展的信心。根據天工工具 2019 年 3.47 億元淨利潤核算戰投認購 PE估值為 24.5 倍，而按上市公司 2019 年 3.95 億元淨利潤則 PE 為 21.5 倍，均高於公司當前估值水平。此外，公吿顯示若天工工具在 2023 年 12 月 31 日前未能實現合格上市，公司附屬天工香港將以 4%利率回購戰投股權，表明公司核心業務載體的天工工具未來或將在 A 股上市，有望拔高公司估值。
歸母淨利潤持續高速增長的工模具鋼龍頭。公司為全球工模具鋼龍頭，主營業務包括模具鋼、高速鋼、切削工具及鈦合金，2020H1 佔比毛利分別為 58.8%、23.5%、13.8%、3.9%，2019 年公司模具鋼銷量排名全球第二、高速鋼銷量排名全球第一。受益於全球市場份額提升、業務結構化升級以及直銷佔比上升，公司業績持續高速增長，歸母淨利潤自 2016 年來持續保持 50%+的增速，2020H1受疫情影響但仍有 41%的增速，考慮到公司粉末冶金投產後產品結構進一步優化升級、海外疫情衝擊競爭對手順勢獲取市場份額提升、公司在泰國年產能 4800萬件的自動化切削工具廠於2020 年9 月建成並投產且切削工具業務受益於近期歐美疫情導致的 DIY 需求增加，公司 2020 年業績有望維持較好水平。
國內首條粉末冶金產線投產加速高端工模具鋼國產替代。公司年產能 2000 噸的粉末冶金一期產線於 2019 年底投產，2020 年前三季度試產，2020 年四季度進入正常生產和銷售階段，按照 15 萬元/噸的價格、50%毛利率，全面達產後將會增厚毛利潤接近 1.5 億元/年，而 3000 噸/年產能的粉末冶金二期項目建設也在穩步進行，考慮到公司產品較海外性價比優異，隨着客户驗證的順利進行，公司在高端工模具鋼領域的競爭力將不斷加強，國產替代正在進行時。
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